THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET
GIANTS at COMMANDERS
1 p.m., Commanders by 6 ½, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: How much stock should bettors place in the Giants’ undefeated preseason? Not to take the air out of the balloon, but the 2008 Lions went 4-0 in those meaningless games before going 0-16 in the ones that counted. Still, they do look a lot better and figure to get better quarterback play out of Russell Wilson while, on the other side of the ball, a pretty good pass rush could reach elite levels with the addition of Abdul Carter. The Commanders are hoping to get more out of their revamped O-line to take pressure off Jayden Daniels, but the Giants’ ability to use Carter in different ways could be a bigger factor in Week 1 without a lot of game film. Washington, of course, is a dark horse Super Bowl contender and went 2-0 SU against the Giants a year ago. The Giants, however, beat the spread both times, rushing for over 125 yards both times. Wilson has always found success as an underdog in his career and, since 2010, Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 23-7 ATS since 2010, 10-2 ATS since 2018. Given that the line figures to be inflated with all the expectations for the Commanders, we’ll take those points.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Giants and the under.
STEELERS at JETS
1 p.m., Steelers by 2 ½, 38
HANK’S HONEYS: The game should be a tug of war with each team determined to win it in the pits via the running game. That’s why we lean to the under first, even with a relatively low number. Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields swap jerseys. Although it’s Rodgers with the motivational advantage, it’s Fields with the greater mobility, an important factor here, given the strength of the two pass rushes. Rodgers has turned into a sitting duck and can no longer make those jailbreak plays. His receiving corps lacks depth so there’s an opportunity for the Jets to make the Steelers one-dimensional. There’s a lot of public money on the Steelers, but that faith is based on reputation. We’re going to grab the points and hope that Aaron Glenn’s energy wears off on his new team.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jets and the under.
RAIDERS at PATRIOTS
1 p.m., Patriots by 2 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel get going in their new jobs in what looks like a low scoring game given both coaches’ adherence to the running game. Nevertheless, we’re looking for Drake Maye to bust out in his second year. He has Josh McDaniel calling plays against his old team surrounded by personnel better suited for his success. New England’s defense was sound last year when it didn’t have to stay on the field too long and it should have an advantage over Geno Smith and a Vegas offense putting new pieces together. You have to think home field is worth something here and with the line below a field goal, we’ll ride with the favorites.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
DOLPHINS at COLTS
1 p.m., Colts by 1 ½, 46 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The over is the play here give these two defenses. Daniel Jones could have a field day in his Colts debut against a Jalen Ramsey-less secondary. Ditto for a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, who looked good in the preseason and will be up against a young, inexperienced unit and bolstered by the presence of RB De’Von Achane, who is set to go after a calf injury. Miami’s pass defense may be fragile but the Dolphins can get after the passer, and Giants fans have seen Jones under pressure. Most trends favor the Fish. The Colts have lost 10 of 11 season openers SU and are 2-9 ATS in those games.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the over.
BENGALS at BROWNS
1 p.m., Bengals by 5 ½, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Bengals have been notoriously slow starters and they tried to address that with a different preseason mindset, playing their starters. Their defense stunk in 2024 but are hoping that incoming defensive coordinator Al Golden’s simpler approach fixes that. His man scheme will force 40-year-old Joe Flacco to make accurate throws. Can he keep up with Joe Burrow without turning it over? The Browns have given their interstate rivals problems in the past but they have dropped four of the last five.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.
CARDINALS at SAINTS
1 p.m., Cards by 5 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Cardinals are stacked this year. The Saints are not. Spencer Rattler is among the worst starting QBs in the league, with a penchant for throwing the ball into coverage. The Cardinals have improved their defensive front with Josh Sweat and Dalvin Tomlinson so running against them is going to be tough to do, which will put even more pressure on Rattler to get things done. Arizona is a fast team that thrives on turf. Kyler Murray missed time in the early weeks of last season with a knee injury and he should be raring to take apart one of the league’s weakest defenses.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cardinals and the under.
BUCS at FALCONS
1 p.m., Bucs by 2 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: You look at Baker Mayfield against Michael Penix Jr. and you might think there’s a huge disparity there. But Penix played very well when he stepped in late in the season, a perfect lead-in to this one. The Bucs got nearly every break possible in making the playoffs last year and they certainly can’t count on that luck again. They come into the game banged up and will definitely be missing WR Chris Godwin and LT Tristan Wirtz, the protector of Mayfield’s blind side. The Falcons have won four of their last five home openers as underdogs and deserve the pick here between two evenly matched teams.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.
LIONS at PACKERS
4:25 p.m., Packers by 2 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: Micah Parsons is going to make a huge impact in Green Bay but he’s still getting his feet wet with a new team after missing all of training camp. We’re also not buying all this preseason love for the Packers. In spite of what happened against the Commanders, the Lions still have an incredibly talented offense and they have controlled the series lately, winning six of the last seven meetings, including four of five when Jordan Love starts and three straight at Lambeau Field. Grab the points while you can.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
TITANS at BRONCOS
4:25 p.m., Broncos by 7 ½, 42
HANK’S HONEYS: This is the biggest spread of the week based on last year’s records, especially the Titans’ 2-15 mark ATS. The Broncos are expected to be even better in Sean Payton’s third season at the helm and Bo Nix’s second at QB. They’ve bolstered their running game to present a much more balanced attack that will be up against one of the league’s worst defenses. By contrast, The Broncos’ D is top tier and facing rookie QB Cam Ward. Rookie QBs generally don’t have much success making their debuts on the road, especially if they are forced to match points, a likely scenario here.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the over.
VIKINGS at BEARS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Vikings by 1 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Vikings have the better team but who has the better quarterback? J.J. McCarthy makes his first start for the Vikings while everyone expects Caleb Williams to take a second-year step forward for the Bears with Ben Johnson, former mastermind of the Lions’ offense, now in charge. There’s a lot of public confidence in the Bears but those people may be getting ahead of themselves. The Vikings were a playoff team for a reason last year and it wasn’t just Sam Darnold. The defense remains one of the NFL’s best
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the under.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
RAVENS at BILLS
8:20 p.m., Bills by 1 ½, 50 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: You might as well toss a coin instead of analyzing this one, although the under (6-1-1 in the last eight meetings) should get your attention. The Bills have won 10 straight home games and rolled the Ravens in last year’s playoffs. Baltimore, though, has the stronger defense and a bit more motivation and did more to improve over the offseason, adding WR DeAndre Hopkins for Lamar Jackson’s enjoyment while bolstering the secondary with Jaire Alexander and draft pick Malaki Starks.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Ravens and the under.
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BEST OF THE REST
PANTHERS at JAGUARS
1 p.m., Jags by 3, 47
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jaguars and the over
49ERS at SEAHAWKS
4:05 p.m., 49ers by 2 ½, 43 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: 49ers and the under.
TEXANS at RAMS
4:25 p.m., Rams by 2 ½, 46 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the under.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Broncos. Top D dominates rookie QB.
LAST YEAR
REGULAR SEASON: 129-139-4, 133-136-3 OVER/UNDER
BEST BETS: 9-9
PLAYOFFS: 6-6-1 ATS, 7-6 OVER/UNDER, 3-0 BEST BETS
