THE BEST GAMES TO BET
COWBOYS at JETS
1 p.m., Cowboys by 2 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The culture change Aaron Glenn promised has yet to take shape. His team is self-destructing with bone-headed mistakes and penalties. That said, the Jets are not an 0-5 team and they could be catching the Cowboys in a flat spot after their OT tie with Micah Parsons and the Packers.
For sure, the Dallas secondary can be had (see Russell Wilson’s last hurrah) and their run defense was gashed for 164 yards by Green Bay, which makes this a good week for Breece Hall to get going. Dak Prescott has been making up for that with some phenomenal play and the Jets’ secondary has been shredded for big plays so we’re more confident in the over than the side. The situation, however, makes it a Jets lean.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jets and the over.
GIANTS at SAINTS
1 p.m., Saints by 1 ½, 41 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s a puzzling line, especially given Jaxson Dart’s impressive debut against a stout Chargers defense. Consider the array of quarterbacks the Giants have faced so far. Now comes the aptly named Spencer Rattler, who could be easily rattled by the Giants’ formidable pass rush. The Saints’ weapons are few and far between. Alvin Kamara is showing his age and Chris Olave is trade bait. The Giants will miss Malik Nabers for sure but they won’t need many points to take this one. Take the under while you’re at it.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Giants and the under.
VIKINGS vs. BROWNS in LONDON
9:30 a.m., Vikings by 3 ½, 36
HANK’S HONEYS: Dillon Gabriel gets the call for the benched Joe Flacco, finding himself up against Brian Flores’ complicated defense. The Vikings have a huge advantage spending a second week across the pond and after looking jet-lagged against the Steelers, they are primed for a bounce-back effort in a game they really need with tough games against the Eagles, Chargers and Lions up next. Myles Garrett and the Browns’ pass rush are a concern against a shaky Minnesota offensive line but we just don’t trust the rookie QB in this spot.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the under.
TEXANS at RAVENS
1 p.m., Ravens by 3 ½, 40 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: This is assuming Lamar Jackson is out, leaving Cooper Rush to face a tough Texans D. Rush was 9-5 SU when filling in as a Cowboys starter so he’s capable but the entire offense changes without the threat Jackson poses as a runner. And with LT Ronnie Stanley hurt, Houston’s pass rush will be an issue. The Ravens may have even bigger problems on defense, where the injuries keep mounting. The Texans finally hit their stride last week after opening the season with three straight losses.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the over.
DOLPHINS at PANTHERS
1 p.m., Dolphins by 1 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: These are two bad teams but we’re going to go with the home dog. Bryce Young has been getting skewered for his inconsistent-at-best play and coach Dave Canales is already on the hot seat. If the Panthers are going to be up for any game, it’s this one. The Miami defense is nothing special and with Tyreek Hill lost for the year, Tua Tagovailoa is down his main weapon. The Panthers routed the Falcons in their only home game so far and with the Dolphins on a short week after just getting by the rival Jets, the spot screams Carolina.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the under.
BRONCOS at EAGLES
1 p.m., Eagles by 4 ½, 43
HANK’S HONEYS: The public money seems to be on Philly but the Broncos are a live dog in this one. The Eagles may be undefeated but they haven’t exactly been running roughshod over opponents, having won all four games by a combined 20 points, and having been outgained in every game. Denver’s defense is good enough to keep this one close, especially with the Eagles’ running game waning. The offense comes off its best performance of the season, with 500 net yards as Bo Nix shook off the cobwebs. The Eagles will be taking on the rival Giants in four days’ time so there are look ahead possibilities as well.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the over.
RAIDERS at COLTS
1 p.m., Colts by 6 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Geno Smith has been throwing the football up for grabs and after blowing a winnable game by taking two TDs off the board against the Rams, the Colts should be primed to take advantage. The Raiders are 22nd in the league in points allowed while Indy has blasted subpar stop units, scoring 33 points against the Dolphins and 41 against the Titans. The Raiders match up well against the Colts’ run defense but they’re not going to be allowed to keep it on the ground if the Colts take a sizable lead.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the over.
BUCS at SEAHAWKS
4:05 p.m., Seahawks by 3, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: The Bucs’ defense is one of the top stop units in the NFL and just held Saquon Barkley and his running mates to 88 yards on the ground. They should have little trouble limiting a Seattle running game averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Todd Bowles can then turn on the blitz machine against Sam Darnold. Led by Baker Mayfield, the Bucs are a gritty team with the perfect road mentality while the Seahawks’ old home field advantage has evaporated recently.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the under.
LIONS at BENGALS
4:25 p.m., Lions by 8 ½, 49 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: We’ve seen this Lions offense when it gets rolling and we don’t see how a Bengals defense that has been getting thrashed on a weekly basis can get many stops against Jared Goff. It might seem like a possible letdown spot for the Lions, on the road against an inferior non-conference opponent with a big game against the Chiefs on deck. But Dan Campbell just doesn’t let his team look ahead. Jake Browning has been struggling behind a porous O-line and Aidan Hutchinson figures to add to his misery. Throw in the short week and it’s an easy pick.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
PATRIOTS at BILLS
8:20 p.m., Bills by 8 ½, 48 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Bills comes back from a flat spot, failing to cover the hook against the Saints, and should have their antennas up for another AFC East encounter. The prime time atmosphere in Orchard Park always energizes the Bills, especially Josh Allen. Mike Vrabel will try to slow down the game with a possession mindset (the Bills are allowing over six ypc) but if that strategy goes awry, Drake Maye is going to have his hands full trying to trade points. The New England secondary has holes and Allen is adept at exploiting them.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the over.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
CHIEFS at JAGUARS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Chiefs by 3, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s always hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes in prime time, even on the road, especially now that K.C. had begun to right the ship. And with the young Jaguars being so inconsistent, it’s a very tough call. Both teams have been impressive defensively so far and MNF games tend to be more low scoring so the under cries out. It’s rare that the Jaguars are featured in prime time so this is a huge crossroads game for the franchise. It’s very possible that they will cave in that spot. But we’ve seen enough to believe they are an improved football team against one in decline.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Jaguars and the under.
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BEST OF THE REST
TITANS at CARDINALS
4:05 p.m., Cards by 9 ½, 42
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Titans and the under.
COMMANDERS at CHARGERS
4:25 p.m., Chargers by 3, 48
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Commanders and the over.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Colts. Geno the generous.
LAST WEEK: 8-7-1; OVER/UNDER: 9-6-1
OVERALL: 29-34-1; OVER/UNDER: 30-33-1
BEST BETS: 3-1
