New Jersey’s contenders in the governor’s race are meeting for the final debate of the election on Wednesday — just as Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill appears to have lost significant ground to Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Polls show a rapidly tightening election in the once deep blue Garden State — and it’s got national Democrats rattled.
The debate begins at 7 p.m. at the New Brunswick Performing Arts Center. It will be the largest platform Sherrill (D-NJ) and businessman Ciattarelli get to speak to voters between now and Election Day.
Like their first verbal bout in September, Wednesday night is expected to be a fiery and combative showdown, with both candidates setting their sights on a breakthrough moment that could alter the trajectory of the increasingly close race.
Hot button issues of the campaign, such as New Jersey’s skyrocketing utility bills, soaring costs of living, Sherrill’s involvement in the Naval Academy cheating scandal, taxes and Ciattarelli’s ties to President Trump are likely to dominate their clash.
Days after Sherrill and Ciattarelli first squared off on Sept. 21, the New Jersey Globe broke the bombshell story that the congresswoman didn’t walk with her graduating class at the Naval Academy due to involvement in the cheating scandal that rocked the elite school in the early 1990s.
She claimed that the penalty was due to her refusal to rat out her fellow classmates.
To counter attacks over the cheating scandal, Sherrill and her allies have also gone on offense, seizing on a CBS News report that the National Archives and Records Administration erroneously gave a Ciattarelli ally a barely redacted copy of her military records, featuring sensitive information such as her Social Security number.
Amid the barbs being exchanged over Sherrill’s military record, a string of polls have suggested that the race — where Sherrill was once the runaway frontrunner could now be neck-and-neck.
Sherrill has a 3.3 percentage point advantage over her conservative counterpart, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling.
About a month ago, she had an 8.3 point lead.
For context, the RCP aggregate underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by some 5 points in the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial race. Ciattarelli lost to incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) by about 3 points. There are also indications that Republican voters are returning their mail-in ballots at a higher clip than in recent elections.
During the last debate, Sherrill and Ciattarelli briefly sniped over each other’s finances, with the GOP hopeful dinging the congresswoman for growing her net worth by several million dollars since being elected to high office.
But bread and butter issues are also expected to dominate the debate, which will span about an hour and last about 30 minutes less than their first verbal bout.
A major flashpoint policy issue in the race has been the surging cost of electricity bills in New Jersey.
Ciattarelli has largely faulted outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy’s (D) policies and offshore wind for the dramatic hike in electric bills, while Sherrill has partly blamed President Trump’s reversal of Democratic green energy policies for the increases.
Both candidates have vowed to ramp up in-state energy production, with Ciattarelli focusing on natural gas and nuclear energy, while Sherrill has emphasized green energy production.
Broadly speaking, Sherrill has been trying to lump Ciattarelli in with Trump, who is unpopular in New Jersey. Conversely, Ciattarelli has sought to tie Sherrill in with Murphy, whose standing is even worse than the Republican president in some polls.
National politics have also been dominant in the gubernatorial race. Given that it takes place between the presidential and midterm elections, many observers see it as a bellwether to test the country’s mood.
Sherrill and Ciattarelli’s debate will take place in the shadow of a partial government shutdown that has now lasted a week.
Publicly, the two have largely mirrored the talking points of their respective parties, with Ciattarelli faulting Sherrill for voting with her party against a spending patch to avert a partial shutdown. Sherrill has knocked Republicans over cuts to healthcare spending that her party cited for rejecting the spending patch.
How to watch
The Wednesday night debate will last until 8 p.m. and be moderated by Tamala Edwards of ABC6 in Philadelphia and Bill Ritter of ABC7 in New York.
It will be broadcast on ABC7 in New York and ABC6 in Philadelphia, as well as Univision channel 41.
Viewers can also stream it online.
By state law, the two candidates are required to appear in two debates.
Election Day is Nov. 4.
