THE BEST GAMES TO BET
BRONCOS vs. JETS in LONDON
9:30 a.m., Broncos by 7, 43
HANK’S HONEYS: The Jets have allowed at least 27 points in every game, giving Bo Nix a chance to build on his strong performance in the Broncos’ upset over the Eagles last week, even moreso considering that that Jets can’t stop the run. With that kind of palate to work with, Sean Payton is going to have fun with his X’s and O’s. It is a tough travel spot for Denver, on the road for the fourth game. But Payton has turned this into a two-week excursion for his team and he’s 3-0 when he’s done that, including last year against the Jets.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the under.
PATRIOTS at SAINTS
1 p.m., Pats by 3 ½, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: Mike Vrabel’s influence on the Patriots is becoming more evident awhile QB Drake Maye keeps getting more up to speed with Josh McDaniels. He’s been thinking and seeing the game very well and it’s ignited the downfield passing game. The Saints were outplayed by the Giants beside the five turnovers, averaging just four yards per play outside of Spencer Rattler’s 87-yard strike to Rashid Shaheed. New England has won and covered both road games, including a rout of the Panthers, a similarly-structured team to the Saints.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
BROWNS at STEELERS
1 p.m., Steelers by 5 ½, 38
HANK’S HONEYS: The Steelers have the inside track on the wacky AFC North but it’s not as though they are miles ahead of their rivals, particularly when they are on the wrong end of the most important matchup in this game. The combination of Aaron Rodgers’ lack of mobility and Pittsburgh’s poor line play is a liability that Myles Garrett and his friends can exploit. The schedule does favor the Steelers. They will be well-rested coming off a bye while the Browns play a third straight game away from Cleveland, including last week in London. But in what should be a low-scoring game, the line is a tad too ambitious.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the under.
SEAHAWKS at JAGUARS
1 p.m., Seahawks by 1 ½, 46 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Jaguars are coming off their biggest win in the Trevor Lawrence era in improbable come-from-behind fashion against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. If there was ever a letdown spot, this is it. The Jaguars are on a short week and will be heading off to their traditional second home in London while Seattle needs a win after blowing last week’s game to the Bucs. In spite of his late INT last week, Sam Darnold has been on a tear. The Seahawks piled up 463 yards against Tampa Bay and were 4-for-4 in the red zone. They’re also excellent defending the run, the key to the Jags’ attack.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the under.
RAMS at RAVENS
1 p.m., Rams by 7 ½, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The public cash is all over the Rams but we’re not ready to bury the Ravens yet, at least when it comes to getting more than a touchdown. Yes, Baltimore’s defense has been getting shredded but there’s got to be a lot of pride left in that locker room and we have a hard time believing that things will spiral completely out of control. Cooper Rush isn’t as bad as he looked against the Texans when he threw three INTs and he’ll look to get right against a Rams D that has allowed over 26 points in its last three games. John Harbaugh will scheme ways to keep this one from becoming a blowout.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the over.
TITANS at RAIDERS
4:05 p.m., Raiders by 5 ½, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: Does anyone really trust the Raiders to cover this many points? They have a league-worst 1-4 record ATS, failing to impress in any category. With Geno Smith throwing picks left and right, they’ve been putting their opponents in tremendous field position. The one thing Tennessee can do is get after the QB with Jeffery Simmons so we know Geno is going to be putting a few balls up for grabs. Many thought that a fade-the-Titans would prove profitable but they haven’t been total ATS doormats with a 2-3 record, including last week’s upset of the Cardinals.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Titans and the over.
49ERS at BUCS
4:25 p.m., Bucs by 3, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s hard to bet against Baker Mayfield, who keeps pulling wins out of a hat but you have to wonder when the magic runs out. The problem is Tampa Bay’s secondary. Kyle Shanahan has been getting some very efficient QB play out of Mac Jones and this is an opportunity for him to scheme the heck out of the Bus. Todd Bowles lives and dies with the blitz but that has always been a risky proposition against Shanahan-coached teams.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: 49ers and the over.
BENGALS at PACKERS
4:25 p.m., Packers by 14 ½, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Joe Flacco gets another crack at the Packers in a Bengals uniform with an upgraded receiving corps over what he had with the Browns, a 13-10 upset winner over the Pack in Week 3. We think he gets the ball in the hands of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to get inside this biggest number of the NFL season. The Packers will be well-rested off their bye and they should reward survivor pool backers with a W. The question is whether they take the Bengals seriously enough
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.
LIONS at CHIEFS
8:20 p.m., Chiefs by 1 ½, 50
HANK’S HONEYS: We think we’ve seen enough of the Chiefs to know they are no longer among the elite of the NFL. And as for the Lions winning in Kansas City, we saw that happen on opening night last year. The Chiefs are still favored because of one man, Patrick Mahomes. But while the K.C. offense is beginning to show signs of life (bet the over), we don’t think his undermanned receiving corps can do enough to keep up with the most explosively balanced offense in the league. Dan Campbell is 11-2 ATS when his Lions are dogs. When they rout a team, they usually do it again the next week.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
BILLS at FALCONS
Monday, 7:15 p.m., Bills by 4 ½, 50
HANK’S HONEYS: This is a good spot for the Falcons. The Bills are coming off two straight ATS home losses, playing only their second road game of the season. It may be Monday night (ho hum for the Bills, big deal for Atlanta) but it’s a non-conference game against an opponent that’s better than it appears. Outside of the egg they laid in Carolina, the Falcs have been in every game against a stout schedule. The Bills’ defensive weakness is against the run and the Falcons should be able to slow things down that way. Michael Penix is getting better each week and his receiving corps is above average. They’re coming out of their bye and the Bills are going into theirs, more likely to find their groove afterwards.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
BEARS at COMMANDERS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Commanders by 3 ½, 50
HANK’S HONEYS: Jayden Daniels makes all the difference with the Commanders. Do the Bears just have the defense to slow him down, ranking in the bottom third of the league? They may not. On the other hand, Caleb Williams is improving each week. Washington’s defense has holes so there will be points. Situationally, the Bears might have the edge. The Commanders will face the rival Cowboys next on a short week while the Bears are a fresh team coming off their bye. Then there’s the matter of how last year’s game ended, with that crazy Hail Mary. The Bears could find some motivation there.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Bears and the over.
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BEST OF THE REST
COWBOYS at PANTHERS
1 p.m., Cowboys by 3 ½, 49 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the under.
CHARGERS at DOLPHINS
1 p.m., Chargers by 4 ½, 43
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the over.
CARDINALS at COLTS
1 p.m., Colts by 5 ½, 47 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the over.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Patriots. Don’t tell Bill Belichick about Drake Maye.
LAST WEEK: 10-4; OVER/UNDER: 5-9
OVERALL: 39-38-1; OVER/UNDER: 35-42-1
BEST BETS: 4-1
