New Jersey gov hopeful Mikie Sherrill is up five points in a new poll released Wednesday — and that’s bad news for her.
While Sherrill (D-NJ) nabbed a 50% to 45% lead over Republican foe Jack Ciattarelli in the latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll of likely voters, the survey has a history of wildly underestimating the GOP vote.
The poll result is also a dramatic collapse from the 20-point lead she had in June.
“This garbage pollster missed by 5 in 2021 and 14 in 2024. I’m now convinced it’s really Jack +2,” political commentary Matt Rooney mused about the survey.
Sherrill’s edge is also close to the 4.7 percentage point margin of error in the poll and follows a slew of polls showing a significantly tighter race than what had been gauged during the summer.
“As all eyes turn to New Jersey’s governor’s race as a test of the nation’s political mood, the contest has narrowed in its final weeks,” Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick, explained.
Here’s the latest on the NJ Governor’s race
“Polls show a close race as voters tune in and opinions solidify, but the outcome will ultimately hinge on each campaign’s turnout operation. This is especially true in off-year elections, which are usually accompanied by comparatively smaller and less predictable electorates.”
Overall, Sherrill has a 4.1 point lead in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate, which underestimated Ciattarelli’s by about 5 points during his 2021 gubernatorial bid.
That suggests Ciattarelli could be neck-and-neck with his Democratic rival.
Early voting for the Nov. 4 election begins on Saturday.
