The FBI’s raid on the founder of the online betting site Polymarket shows that the Lawfare Era under the Biden-Harris administration didn’t die after Donald Trump’s decisive victory on Election Day.
Instead, the “deep state” picked a quarry that is less famous, less powerful, less wealthy, less tall, and less loud than the president-elect. And he may be the worst-dressed person I have ever met.
But Polymarket boss Shayne Coplan appears to be a favored punching bag for everyone who is furious that his technology predicted the election with staggering accuracy.
His online betting market also presciently predicted that President Joe Biden would exit the campaign around the same time network pundits were toadying up to Fighting Joe’s never-been-better fitness.
Coplan is known in New York startup circles as a privately jovial but publicly shy tech purist who will sit behind his laptop for days when “jamming” on Polymarket code.
In my several years of knowing Coplan, I have never once heard him discuss politics with interest or enthusiasm. To initiate any conversation about politics is a surefire way to drive Coplan back into his iPhone to email with his small and scrappy engineering team.
Perhaps this is to his detriment. The Democrats seem to have lost their iron grip on Big Tech by slapping down builders and enriching those who master the art of lobbying and regulatory gymnastics. Is this where we want our young innovators to focus their precious time and limited capital?
That Polymarket or Coplan could be “brought down” by the FBI is a non-starter, given the critical role it played in the election and the sheer number of important people who use it as an irreplaceable information resource. Even Elon Musk tweeted his support.
More importantly, betting on the news or elections is not even illegal. It is perfectly legal in the United States, though Polymarket itself is still earnestly navigating a years-long regulatory waltz that forced it overseas while less popular competitors glad-handed their way to faster domestic approvals.
But that is the very picture of Lawfare — picking a politically appetizing target and then combing through whatever-they-can-find to pin him with a transgression.
The funny thing about Lawfare, though, is that it seems to be turning our society’s shy introverts and odd ducks into the sorts of men who can speak up and fight for themselves.
What is lost in the FBI’s “raid for the sake of attention” approach is that Coplan and Polymarket are not heroes of the Right because they hold or project any partisan posture. They have gained the favor of millions because they seek a truly neutral alternative to the likes of the De Moines Register, or other crystal ball methods of weighing reality.
But here is a prediction that one can make without the aid of technology: if forced into the PR spotlight, Coplan and Polymarket will rise to the occasion.
The innumerable people who know Coplan and have invested in his big idea have often wondered why he is not the sort of founder who wants to be famous. He has all the skills and opportunity to be a compelling television or podcast mainstay. His discipline and apolitical nature have hitherto held him back.
But if the FBI continues to be more partisan than the target they are pursuing, then all bets might be off.
Bryan Goldberg is an entrepreneur who owns Bustle Digital Group, which operates media properties that include Bustle, Nylon, W Magazine and Gawker.
