THE BEST GAMES TO BET
COLTS at JETS
1 p.m., Jets by 3 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: A matchup of two dysfunctional teams. Sean Steichen can’t decide on who is QB should be and is going back to Anthony Richardson this week. The Jets, of course, are underperforming everywhere at an incredible rate. They were lucky to have caught the Texans in a bad spot and weren’t competitive in Arizona, where their defensive effort has to be questioned. For us, it’s when in doubt, take the hook. We can’t see the Jets winning, if they, do, by more than a field goal. Hit the under hard. The Jets are among the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL and we don’t see the Indy offense going off as long as they are playing musical chairs at QB.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the under.
JAGUARS at LIONS
1 p.m., Lions by 13 ½, 46 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The line has been bet up all the way from 10 ½, and for good reason. Even though they failed to cover by the hook last week, the Lions came all the way back to beat the Texans in a prime-time road game. Back home where they excel, they will not take any chances against the moribund Jags. Mac Jones will start again with Trevor Lawrence out, leaving the Jags with no chance to win a shootout against Jared Goff, a good bet not to throw five INTs this week. As long as it stays under two touchdowns, Detroit’s still the pick.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the under.
PACKERS at BEARS
1 p.m., Packers by 6 ½, 40 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: This is just a complete fade against the Bears, who have gone 23 straight drives without a TD. Matt Eberflus can’t commit to Caleb Williams, which can’t do much for the rookie’s shaky confidence as he takes on the rival Packers with his job on the line and his offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, fired. The Packers are fully healthy after the bye for the first time since opening week, and that includes Jordan Love while the Bears are licking several wounds, including LG Teven Jenkins, edge rusher Montez Sweat and safety Jaquan Brisker. If Jenkens can’t go, an O-line that has been getting destroyed will be losing one of its best players. Need more convincing? Matt Lafleur is a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS against the Bears.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the under.
RAVENS at STEELERS
1 p.m., Ravens by 3 ½, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: Russell Wilson is cooking and he’ll have some poultry on the menu here. No defense has allowed more passing yards per game than the Ravens and in a rivalry game like this, that large a gap can be exploited. We don’t see a Mike Tomlin-coached team allowing his defense to be run over by Derrick Henry and as good as Lamar Jackson has been, he’s yet to light up the Steelers with a career record of 2-4, a passer rating of 66.8, four TDs and seven INTs. Underdogs catching a field goal plus the hook have been money this season and that goes even more in a huge divisional game at home. The Steelers are 11-3 ATS as a home dog since 2018.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the over.
RAMS at PATRIOTS
1 p.m., Rams by 4 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s a bad spot for the Rams, flying to New England on a short week to face an opponent they can easily overlook while spotting them 4 ½ points. Meanwhile, the Patriots have picked it up lately, winning two of their last three games with rookie QB Drake Maye playing some impressive football and their defense improving, now that it’s not staying on the field all game. Strangely, the Rams’ offense has slumped since Matthew Stafford’s weapons returned. A healthier Pats defense should take advantage of the LA’s O-line.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
VIKINGS at TITANS
1 p.m., Vikings by 6 ½, 40
HANK’S HONEYS: The line just feels too large. Even though they’ve won two straight against the Colts and Jaguars, the Vikings aren’t the same juggernaut they were before they lost that showdown with the Lions. They haven’t scored more than 21 points since that game and Sam Darnold has regressed to the norm with several questionable decisions. The Titans should be able to keep him under wraps with their pass rush and top-five pass defense. Typically, dome teams like the Vikes are far less explosive on road grass.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Titans and the under.
BROWNS at SAINTS
1 p.m., Saints by 1 ½, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The textbook move is to bet on the team the week it fires its coach and fade them the next game. That applies here. The Browns have the better defense, especially up front where they will be all over Derek Carr, who is terrible under pressure. At the same time, he Saints’ inability to stop the run will haunt them against Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford. Let’s not forget also that Jameis Winston will probably have a little extra juice back in the Superdome. The Browns needed the bye week to reconnoiter things and we expect the Saints to have a bit of a letdown after their upset win over the Falcons.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the under.
FALCONS at BRONCOS
4:05 p.m., Broncos by 1 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: The Broncos will have the Falcons’ full attention after Atlanta stumbled in New Orleans last week but how will Denver respond after blowing what looked like a slam-dunk upset win against the Chiefs? The Broncos being a young team, we don’t think they’ll bounce back very well. Kirk Cousins had led the Falcons to scoring over 26 points in five of their last seven games while the Broncos have scored 20 points or fewer in six of their last 10.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.
BENGALS at CHARGERS
8:20 p.m., Chargers by 1 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Bengals, a strong 4-6 team if there ever was one, keep losing close games to good opponents. That would ordinarily give them value in this situation. However, the Chargers are also better than their record and might be the most underrated team among the contenders. Balanced, sound and extremely well-coached, they match up well against the Bengals, whom they will force to play their game. Cincy is made to win shootouts on the strength of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase but Jim Harbaugh turns games into ugly slogfests. The Bengals’ defense isn’t made to absorb a pounding. The Bolts, who will be in the national spotlight for once, will keep grinding and winning.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the under.
TEXANS at COWBOYS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Texans by 7 ½, 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Yes, the Cowboys stink but this is a total overreaction. There is one matchup that can keep them in the game. The Texans have one of the worst O-lines in football. When it’s not allowing sacks (a second-worst 34) , it’s committing holding penalties. With Micah Parsons back, the Cowboys sacked Jalen Hurts five times, and it’s a good bet they’ll be all over C.J. Stroud as well. The Cowboys have to have some pride lest and facing their in-state rival at home on a Monday night should bring it out.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the under.
LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
CHIEFS at BILLS
4:25 p.m., Bills by 1 ½, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: These games are always impossible to predict. The Bills have won three straight regular season matchups against the Chiefs but since Patrick Mahomes became the starter, the Chiefs are 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog. Still, KC has covered in just four of their nine wins this week. The thumb on the scale favors Buffalo. The Bills are home and they have been overperforming the number. KC has been underperforming with an offense that doesn’t look right. The Chiefs are just due to finally lose one. We are loving the under. The Chiefs don’t pile up points these days.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Bills and the under.
BEST OF THE REST
RAIDERS at DOLPHINS
1 p.m., Dolphins by 7, 44 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Raiders and the under.
SEAHAWKS at 49ERS
4:05 p.m., Niners by 6 ½, 48 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the over.
WEEK’S BEST BET: Packers. Still own ’em.
LAST WEEK: 7-7, 7-7 over/under
OVERALL: 68-80-4, 79-72-1 over/under
BEST BETS: 6-4
