THE BEST GAMES TO BET
49ERS at GIANTS
1 p.m., Niners by 2 ½, 49
HANK’S HONEYS: The Giants’ chances for getting inside the number against the Eagles evaporated when Cam Skattebo was injured. It was evident how much Jaxson Dart missed him and, unfortunately for the Jints, that continues here. Although the 49ers’ banged up defense was riddled by the Texans last week, they are still a well-coached, veteran unit. With the Giants missing such a big piece, this is going to come down to game plan adjustments and coaching and we just can’t back Brian Daboll against Kyle Shanahan. Christian McCaffrey should be able to get free against a Giants run defense just blasted by Saquon Barkley, allowing the Niners to control the tempo and tone of the game.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: 49ers and the under.
VIKINGS at LIONS
1 p.m., Lions by 8 ½, 48 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: J.J. McCarthy is back but he’s going to have to be really back to match points against Jared Goff. The Lions feast on terrible defensive units because they have the balance and diversity needed to expose any weakness. McCarthy, who didn’t look all that great before he was injured, could be running for his life behind an O-line that’s missing pieces, most notably at center. The Vikings are among the worst run defenses in the league and must now deal with the David Montgomery-Jahmyr Gibbs tandem. They live and die by the blitz but Goff can get the ball out fast to a variety of underneath targets. With two weeks to prepare for a divisional foe, it’s Lions all the way.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
FALCONS at PATRIOTS
1 p.m., Pats by 5 ½, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London return to the Falcons’ lineup after a dreadful showing by Kirk Cousins, et al., against the Vikings while the Pats were pasting the Browns. That sent the spread way above the look ahead line of three, making this a recency bias special. There is no doubt that Drake Maye has been playing at a top tier level, although the level of competition has left something to be desired. The Falcons, who hardly put forth an effort last week, tend to play up and down to the level of their competition. Maye has been torching secondaries deep but much of that success has come against man coverage schemes. The Falcons’ zone philosophy will take some of that away. They have enough talent to keep this close.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.
COLTS at STEELERS
1 p.m., Colts by 3, 50 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: This is a horrible matchup for the Steelers’ reeling defense. Daniel Jones has been thriving with quick, underneath and intermediate routes, an area of weakness for the Steelers. Indy has a banged-up secondary that Aaron Rodgers can attack deep so don’t be afraid of the high total. But he does not have the league’s leading rusher in his backfield or enough receiving weapons to win a shootout. The Steelers have allowed 330 or more passing yards three of the past four weeks and more than 30 points four times this season. We seem to be heading toward those marks again this week.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the over.
PANTHERS at PACKERS
1 p.m., Packers by 12 ½, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Packers are caught between two big prime time games against an easily-overlooked opponent. They won big in the Aaron Rodgers revenge game in Pittsburgh and could be caught looking ahead to the Eagles on Monday night. Carolina may have been blown away by the Bills last week but the Bills were hyper focused in that game. Carolina is better than it looked in that one. With Bryce Young returning, they will have a better chance to hang in there. The line is huge and the Pack, which has had a few low-effort games so far, could be caught looking past them.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the over.
CHARGERS at TITANS
1 p.m., Chargers by 10 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: We just can’t find a reason to bet on the Titans. They’re bad, really bad, and dealing with injuries to several players, most notably their All Pro DT Jeffery Simmons. Meanwhile, the Chargers, with 10 days rest here, are getting healthy. The return of OT Joe Alt has made a huge difference to Justin Herbert, who should enjoy plenty of time in the pocket as he picks on a very thin set of corners. Tennessee has allowed 89 points in its last three games while scoring 39. Their offense has no identity and has left QB Cam Ward where Bryce Young was his rookie year — in no man’s land.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the over.
BEARS at BENGALS
1 p.m., Bears by 2 ½, 52 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Keep an eye on the injured list. The Bengals can’t stop anybody and they are likely to be missing their best player in Trey Hendrickson, whose departure last week allowed the Jets to complete their crazy comeback. Ditto for Joe Flacco, whose shoulder injury could put Jake Browning back under center. If that’s the case, this is an easy call. The one thing the Bears D does really well is create turnovers, with a league-best 16 so far. No one throws more interceptions per pass attempt than Browning — not that Flacco isn’t capable of throwing a few up for grabs. While Caleb Williams is a week to week crap shoot, D’Andre Swift should have a monster game against a run D that allowed Breece Hall to run wild.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the over.
JAGUARS at RAIDERS
4:05 p.m., Jags by 3, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: Upset special. The shine is off the Jaguars recently and their inconsistency is a factor this week. This is the Raiders’ last gasp and we expect to get their best effort, especially since the heat was on Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly as they skidded into their bye. The Jags’ 4-3 record is built against some weak opposition. Conversely, the Raiders’ schedule has been rugged outside of the Titans’ game and the Jaguars rank as one of their lesser opponents so far. Las Vegas is getting some players back after its bye, including Maxx Crosby, who is set to make life miserable for Trevor Lawrence, whose play has diminished since an impressive start.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Raiders and the under.
CHIEFS at BILLS
4:25 p.m., Chiefs by 1 ½, 52 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Chiefs seem to have regained their mojo and the Bills seem to have awakened from their slumber after the bye. Buffalo is rarely a dog at home so there is definitely value with them. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five regular season matchups with the Chiefs and have the formula to control this one by sending James Cook against K.C.’s meh run D and eating up the clock, keeping the red-hot Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. The Chiefs are on the road on a short week while the Bills were able to get in some early prep week during their bye in Week 7.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under.
CARDINALS at COWBOYS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Cowboys by 3, 54
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s an easy over call, as it usually is when the Cowboys play. After that, it gets tricky. Both teams match up pretty well against each other. Kyler Murray, who hasn’t lost at AT&T Stadium going back to his high school days, returns. Although some feel that he’s actually a downgrade from Jacoby Brissett, he should find the Cowboys’ woeful secondary to his liking as he returns from injury. Ditto for Dak Prescott, who comes off his worst game of the season against Denver’s elite D and who always seems to perform better in Dallas. The game features two of the strongest legs in the NFL but with everything on the line, we’re backing Brandon Aubrey.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the over.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
BRONCOS at TEXANS
1 p.m., Broncos by 1 ½, 40
HANK’S HONEYS: This is for sure a possible letdown spot for the Broncos after that miracle win over the Giants followed by a rout of the Cowboys. Denver’s inconsistency worries us and with Patrick Surtain out and Nico Collins and Christian Kirk probably back in, the Texans have a potential mismatch. On the other hand, while the defensive units are even, the offenses are not. Houston has struggled up until last week, for good reason. C.J. Stroud was granted one week of clean living in the pocket against the 49ers. But his exploitable O-line will up against the NFL’s No. 1 pass rush here. We don’t see either side being able to open it up, leading to a grind fest. Go with the under with a lean toward Denver.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Broncos and the under.
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BEST OF THE REST
SAINTS at RAMS
4:05 p.m., Rams by 13 ½, 44
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Rams and the under.
SEAHAWKS at COMMANDERS
8:20 p.m., Seahawks by 3, 47
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Commanders and the over.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Colts. Indiana Jones never loses.
LAST WEEK: 7-6; OVER/UNDER: 8-5
OVERALL: 61-59-1; OVER/UNDER: 64-55-1
BEST BETS: 7-1
