THE BEST GAMES TO BET
BROWNS at JETS
1 p.m., Browns by 2 ½, 38
HANK’S HONEYS: The disparity between the two defenses got even larger after the trades of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The Browns should be all over whichever quarterback Aaron Glenn chooses to start. Breece Hall busted out against the dreadful Bengals run defense but the Browns are a different story, ranked among the best of all run stop units. Dillon Gabriel doesn’t exactly inspire confidence but the Jets’ CB situation helps. Meanwhile, Quinshon Judkins should find plenty of running lanes.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the over.
GIANTS at BEARS
1 p.m., Bears by 3 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: We’re not sure what to make of the Giants at this point. The entire offense is on Jaxson Dart’s shoulders and while the Bears’ defense, with its puny pass rush and beat-up secondary, can be had, the rookie doesn’t really have the weapons to exploit the matchups. Defensively, it seemed as though the Giants were going through the motions against the 49ers and there’s nothing worse than a defense that’s quit. RBs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai can both punish that kind of effort.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the under.
JAGUARS at TEXANS
1 p.m., Texans by 1 ½, 38
HANK’S HONEYS: The two divisional rivals have been heading in opposite directions, so we’re backing Houston in what is essentially a must-win game against a Jaguars team which was lucky to break a two-game losing streak in Las Vegas. C.J. Stroud’s concussion status bears watching but Davis Mills isn’t that much of a downgrade, if at all. There is just one standout unit in this matchup and that is the Texans defense. Trevor Lawrence’s inconsistencies will stand out against this pass rush with new arrival Jakobi Meyers not expected to integrate into the offense so quickly. Even with the low total, it’s still an under call. Both offenses struggle to put up points.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the under.
RAVENS at VIKINGS
1 p.m., Ravens by 4 ½, 49
HANK’S HONEYS: We’re not ready to buy into the Ravens’ resurgence just yet. The Ravens’ defense isn’t going to get back to the standard of previous seasons and the Vikings match up well against them. J.J. McCarthy has both of his offensive tackles back and will have the extra time needed for his talented receivers to work their way open deep. Nnamdi Madubuike’s continued absence also leaves a big hole against the run. Lamar Jackson’s return equals points — enough to play the over but not enough to cover this number.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the over.
PATRIOTS at BUCS
1 p.m., Bucs by 2 ½, 48 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Pats’ six-game winning streak is in serious jeopardy with their toughest test since they upset the Bills in Week 5. The majority of their schedule has been a breeze but with the gritty Bucs getting healthier during their bye, they will not face a tougher team outside of the rematch with Buffalo. The Bucs are stout against the run, and that includes running QBs like Drake Maye. And they may find an edge after watching tape of Drake London’s big game in Foxboro.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the over.
SAINTS at PANTHERS
1 p.m., Panthers by 5 ½, 39 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The line (the Panthers are more than a FG favorite for just the fourth time in six seasons) is a total overreaction to the Panthers’ upset win at Lambeau Field. When you compare the metrics, there isn’t that much of a difference between the teams. Rookie QB Tyler Shough did not look out of place against one of the league’s top defenses in L.A. last week. The Saints should be focused against a divisional rival. The Panthers could be feeling a little too good about themselves and be ripe for a letdown as they look ahead to the Falcons.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the under.
CARDINALS at SEAHAWKS
4:05 p.m., Seahawks by 7, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Seahawks have owned this rivalry with eight straight W’s and it hasn’t been close. They’re coming off a prime time spanking of the Commanders and are as hot as any team. But the Cardinals did stay within a field goal in the first matchup and the Seahawks are caught in a look-ahead spot with a showdown against the Rams on deck. It makes us think that the line is a bit inflated with the value on the visitors. Jacoby Brissett has proven to be more than a capable fill-in for the IR’d Kyler Murray. Arizona’s five losses have been by a combined 13 points and the forecast of rain should make this tighter.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cardinals and the under.
RAMS at 49ERS
4:05 p.m., Rams by 3 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay. Even with the Rams running up 456 yards of offense in the first meeting, the Niners figured out a way to win. That just makes us surer that the Rams are overdue to take this one. The Niners have been able to work around a slew of injuries but the Rams should be able to take advantage of the absence of LB Fred Warner in the running game and TE George Kittle, a huge part of Christian McCaffrey’s blocking entourage.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Rams and the under.
LIONS at COMMANDERS
4:25 p.m., Lions by 8 ½, 49 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Lions have been outstanding in bounce-back scenarios this season and this certainly qualifies as one. The Commanders are in a downward spiral and morale has to be in the toilet with Jayden Daniels needlessly injured again. Marcus Mariota isn’t capable of shooting it out with Jared Goff and the Commanders’ defense isn’t that capable of stopping Goff. Here’s a bit of revenge for last year’s playoff loss. You know how the Lions love to run it up.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
STEELERS at CHARGERS
8:20 p.m., Chargers by 3, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: Joe Alt has been placed on injured reserve, leaving Justin Herbert without the two OTs who started the season. That spells trouble for Herbert as he faces T.J. Watt and friends off their mugging of Daniel Jones. This will be one of those games where the Bolts wish they’d never left San Diego, given the number of terrible towels that will be waving at SoFi. The Chargers are getting healthier on D so we will also lean to the under.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the under.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
EAGLES at PACKERS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Packers by 2 ½, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Packers and Jordan Love have cooled off, with a 1-6 record ATS since their big opening day rout of the Lions. The Eagles are coming on. Love has lost one of his biggest targets, TE Tucker Kraft, for the remainder of the season while the injury news out of Philly is promising. A.J. Brown returns and Saquon Barkley will play in spite of a groin. The Eagles relish the underdog role. They are unbeaten SU in their last five games as such. So why the hesitation? The thing is, it’s obvious that the Packers are underachieving. Is this the week they live up to their talent and bust out?
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Eagles and the under.
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BEST OF THE REST
BILLS at DOLPHINS
1 p.m., Bills by 9 ½, 39 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Saints. Bad spot for the Panthers.
LAST WEEK: 9-5; OVER/UNDER: 6-7-1
OVERALL: 70-64-1; OVER/UNDER: 71-62-2
BEST BETS: 7-2
