In most seasons, Aaron Judge would be the runaway choice for American League MVP.
The Yankees star led the majors in batting average (.331), on-base percentage (.457), slugging percentage (.688), OPS (1.145) and walks (124), while his 53 home runs and 114 RBI both ranked second in the AL.
A deeper dive into Judge’s advanced stats make his 2025 campaign even more impressive.
But this was not most seasons.
That’s because Seattle Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh hit 60 home runs, the most ever by a primary catcher and by a switch-hitter. Only six other players — including Judge in 2022 — have hit at least 60 in a season.
And while oddsmakers peg Judge as the favorite, Raleigh has his share of supporters, too, and most expect the vote to be close.
Cleveland’s José Ramírez rounds out the finalists for AL MVP but is expected to finish in a distant third place.
The race for National League MVP seems to be much less up for grabs, with two-way Los Angeles Dodgers sensation Shohei Ohtani considered the heavy front-runner.
But Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber and the Mets’ Juan Soto also delivered prolific seasons that, in other years, would be worthy of an MVP trophy.
Here’s a breakdown of both MVP races, with the winners set to be announced on Thursday night.
As a reminder, MVP is a regular season award, and ballots were cast before the playoffs even started.
AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP
From a statistical standpoint, AL MVP is Judge’s award to lose.
Judge’s .331 average was 84 points higher than Raleigh’s .247.
Judge’s 1.145 OPS was 197 points higher than Raleigh’s .948.
Judge’s .457 on-base percentage was 98 points higher than Raleigh’s .359.
Judge’s .688 slugging percentage was 99 points higher than Raleigh’s .589.
And Judge scored 137 runs to Raleigh’s 110.
Raleigh did hit seven more home runs than Judge, and his AL-leading 125 RBI were 11 more than that of the Yankees slugger.
But Judge posted the higher WAR, or wins above replacement, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, which calculate the metric using different models.
Judge’s WAR on FanGraphs is 10.1, compared to Raleigh’s 9.1.
Judge’s WAR on Baseball Reference is 9.7, compared to Raleigh’s 7.4, but that model does not include pitch framing in its calculation. Pitch framing is a valuable part of Raleigh’s defense behind the plate.
Judge also boasts an edge in Adjusted OPS+, a formula that normalizes a player’s OPS and accounts for factors such as ballpark and league in an attempt to better compare production across eras.
This season, Judge recorded a 215 OPS+, tying him with Ted Williams’ 1946 campaign for the 46th-highest mark in MLB history. Williams won AL MVP that year.
Raleigh had an OPS+ of 169.
In terms of traditional OPS, the 197-point gap between Judge and Raleigh was larger than the gap between that of Raleigh and Toronto’s Addison Barger, whose .755 OPS ranked 39th among AL hitters.
At 6-7, Judge is the tallest player to win a batting title. His 53 homers were the most ever by a batting champ.
“Nothing Aaron Judge does surprises me,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said in late September. “To me he’s the clear-cut MVP. … He’s playing like an all-time great.”
Of course, there’s more to the MVP argument than stats.
As a starting catcher, Raleigh was tasked with leading a Mariners pitching staff that posted a 3.87 ERA, which ranked sixth in the AL.
That job required pregame meetings with starting pitchers, warming up with them in the bullpen before first pitch, and helping to navigate opposing lineups and execute game plans throughout the nine innings.
That’s not to mention the wear and tear that comes with playing catcher, baseball’s most physically demanding position. And Raleigh was a workhorse.
Raleigh started more games behind the plate (119) and caught more innings (1072.0) than any other American League catcher.
He also started 38 games at designated hitter and appeared in two more games as a pinch-hitter, making days off a rarity for Raleigh. Overall, Raleigh started 157 games and played in 159.
No other MLB catcher played in as many games as Raleigh.
Yet that didn’t prevent Raleigh from hitting more home runs than Mickey Mantle did during the historic 1961 season (54), which was the previous record for a switch-hitter.
Raleigh also broke Ken Griffey Jr.’s franchise record (56) for home runs in a season, as well as Salvador Perez’s record for a primary catcher (48).
And while Raleigh’s defensive metrics were worse in 2025 than in 2024 — when he won the Platinum Glove as the AL’s best fielder at any position — he still recorded seven defensive runs saved to rank fifth among AL catchers.
“We’ve said this all before, but it just continues,” manager Dan Wilson said in September. “And it continues at a historic level. To do what he’s doing, and to do it behind the plate, as often as he’s back there, again, it’s just kind of unfathomable.”
Judge appeared in 152 games, including 95 starts in right field and 56 at DH. A flexor strain in Judge’s right elbow limited his availability in the outfield during the season’s second half, but Judge ranked in the 80th percentile among right fielders with a fielding run value of five, according to MLB’s Statcast.
BetMGM gives Judge -325 odds to win AL MVP, with Raleigh behind him at +220.
Should Judge win it, he would claim his third AL MVP Award, and his second in a row.
NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP
Ohtani, meanwhile, appears to be closing in on his third consecutive MVP Award and his fourth overall.
And for good reason.
As a hitter, Ohtani led the NL in OPS (1.014) and slugging percentage (.622), while his 55 homers and .392 on-base percentage both ranked second.
Ohtani’s 102 RBI were actually the fewest of the three NL MVP finalists, but his 146 runs led the majors.
As a pitcher, Ohtani recorded a 2.87 ERA with 62 strikeouts over 47 innings as he gradually ramped up in his return to the mound after 2023 elbow surgery.
Ohtani’s WAR (9.4) towered over that of Soto (5.8) and Schwarber (4.9), according to the FanGraphs model.
FanGraphs deemed Ohtani to be worth 7.5 wins as a position player — still more than Soto or Schwarber — and another 1.9 wins as a pitcher.
Schwarber led the NL with 56 home runs and the majors with 132 RBI, while his .928 OPS ranked second in the NL behind Ohtani.
But while Schwarber appeared in all 162 games, he spent all but eight of them at designated hitter.
Soto, meanwhile, shook off a slow start in the first season of his record-setting 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets to deliver one of his best overall campaigns.
His 43 home runs marked a career high, while his 38 stolen bases shattered his previous best.
And though he fell just short of becoming the seventh member of MLB’s exclusive 40-40 club, Soto was only the 13th player to record at least 40 homers and 30 steals in a season.
Soto led the NL with a .396 on-base percentage and scored the second most runs (120), and he ranked third in home runs, RBI (105) and OPS (.921).
Still just 26, Soto has never won an MVP, but this will be his sixth top-10 finish in eight MLB seasons. He finished third in the AL race last year as a member of the Yankees.
BetMGM gives Ohtani -3,000 odds to win NL MVP, followed by Schwarber at +1,600 and Soto at +2,200.
