Upstate Rep. Elise Stefanik would trounce Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in a potential Republican primary for governor — and run neck and neck in a general election against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, a new poll claims.
The prominent GOP congresswoman captured the support of 74% of Republican primary voters compared to 5% for the lesser known Blakeman, the survey conducted by J.L. Partners found.
The same poll found a competitive general election race for governor, with Hochul backed by 46% of voters to 43% for Stefanik — within the survey’s 4.4 percent margin of error.
In a Hochul-Blakeman match-up, Hochul led by 11 points, 47% to Blakeman’s 36%, according to the poll.
Blakeman recently revealed he was considering jumping into the race for governor after winning re-election by 12 percentage points last week in his swing suburban Long Island county.
Stefanik, member of the House Republican leadership serving her 6th term in Congress, has much higher name recognition than the Nassau executive and former Hempstead town councilman.
More than 75% of the 400 Republican primary voters surveyed had a very favorable or somewhat favorable view of Stefanik, while less than one-quarter did not know her or had no opinion.
In comparison, more than 75% did not know or had no opinion of Blakeman.
“Stefanik seems to dominate the Republican vote. It’s a done deal,” said pollster James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners.
The pollster said Blakeman would have a steep hill to climb in a primary against Stefanik, given her superior name recognition and popularity.
President Trump had considered Stefanik as his first choice for US Ambassador to the United Nations, but withdrew the nomination because he needed her vote in Congress.
Hochul would be vulnerable in her re-election bid against the firehouse GOP pol, the same survey claimed.
“If the 2026 election for Governor of New York were held today, would you vote to re-elect Kathy Hochul or do you think it’s time for someone new?” the surveyors asked.
Only 37% of the 500 voters polled said they would vote or consider voting for Hochul — while 55% of respondents said it was “time for someone new.”
“It’s 50-50. It’s genuinely a competitive race,” Johnson said of the findings.
A high Democratic turnout could save Hochul, the pollster noted, but he said an increase in Republican Party registration in the state coupled with disgust over New York City voters electing democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as the next mayor could alter the race.
“New York City has an incoming mayor many Democrats don’t like,” Johnson said.
He wondered if Democrats who voted for ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who ran for mayor on an independent line, would abandon Hochul and vote for a Republican candidate for governor.
J.L. Partners was one of the most accurate pollsters last year in predicting that Trump would win the popular vote, as well as the electoral college, in the presidential race against Kamala Harris.
The GOP primary and general gubernatorial election polls were conducted on November 9-10 via live landline and cell phone calls as well as via mobile phone texts.
Four hundred Republicans voters were interviewed for the primary poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%
Meanwhile, 500 likely voters were interviewed for the general election poll, which has a margin of error of 4.4%.
