THE BEST GAMES TO BET
GIANTS at LIONS
1 p.m., Lions by 10 1/2, 50
HANK’S HONEYS: The Lions are just about automatic in a bounce-back spot, especially against inferior opposition and especially the week after Dan Campbell has seen his decisions criticized. The Giants’ defense provides the perfect trampoline for an offense just stifled by the Philadelphia wind. Fortunate that Josh Jacobs was injured during last week’s game with Green Bay, it will find containing Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery a herculean task. Jaxson Dart’s return provides a spark but he’s still a rookie and is bound to force things in any shootout with Jared Goff. If anything, it just makes the over more attractive.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
JETS at RAVENS
1 p.m., Ravens by 13 ½, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Yes, this is a lot of points, especially considering that the Jets are 6-4 ATS, 3-1 on the road. Additionally, The Jets’ defense has held four of its last five opponents to 27 or fewer points but this is the game where the trades of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams can manifest themselves. Although Lamar Jackson is not yet 100%, Derrick Henry will be the Jets’ chief concern. The Ravens hold a big advantage in the trenches and should be able to wear the Jets down and break things open in the second half. Aaron Glenn finally gave up on Justin Fields but while Tyrod Taylor provides better ball security, there is a ceiling on how many points he’ll produce. The Jets will want to muck things up with Breece Hall but the Ravens’ biggest improvement has been against the run. The Jets will have to rely on Taylor’s arm if things start to get away from them.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the under.
COLTS at CHIEFS
1 p.m., Chiefs by 3 ½, 49 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The over-valued Chiefs have exactly one SU win over a team with a winning record and there’s no reason to back them here, especially with the hook in play. In spite of Daniel Jones’ recent regressions toward his Giants days, the Colts should be able to do what the Bills did to the Chiefs’ 24th-ranked run D with No. 1 rusher Jonathan Taylor, eating up clock as they grind. Sauce Gardner’s presence could limit Patrick Mahomes’ options. The Colts will be fresh coming off their bye with a chance to make a statement that the balance of power is shifting in the AFC.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the under.
PATRIOTS at BENGALS
1 p.m., Patriots by 7, 49 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Bengals’ QB situation is up in the air. All signs point to Joe Burrow making his return from a turf toe injury. Still, we have Drake Maye facing the league’s worst pass defense and with Trey Hendrickson doubtful. The Patriots will play against a good team but for now they are finding this stream of patsies to their liking and keep covering week after week. That’s especially true on the road where the Pats are 5-0 SU and ATS. New England’s run defense allows just over 84 ypg and should slow down Chase Brown. With Ja’Marr Chase sitting out his suspension, a rusty Burrow will find it tough sledding.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
STEELERS at BEARS
1 p.m., Bears by 3, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: Plenty of people in Pittsburgh feel that Mason Rudolph is an upgrade over the injured Aaron Rodgers. He’s a popular figure in the locker room, he’s had success when he’s filled in before (including last week) and the team should rally around him. Sooner or later, the Bears’ good fortune is going to run out. Though beat up on defense, they took advantage of one of the worst QB performances of the year by J.J. McCarthy and might have trouble facing a team that in many ways is their mirror image. Mike Tomlin is never a bad bet as an underdog.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the under.
SEAHAWKS at TITANS
1 p.m., Seahawks by 12 ½, 40
HANK’S HONEYS: The Titans aren’t going to be able to do a thing against this Seattle defense, which pretty much shut down the Rams in last week’s loss. Sam Darnold folded as usual under pressure from the Rams’ defense, throwing four INTs. He’ll have all day against the Titans while Kenneth Walker eats up yards against Tennessee’s 27th-ranked run D. Seattle should be eager to bounce back from last week’s disappointment in L.A. against perhaps the worst team in the NFL.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the under.
JAGUARS at CARDINALS
4:05 p.m., Jags by 2 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: We are holding our nose as we write this. Yes, we are going with the Cardinals after being outscored 85-44 over the past two weeks. A third straight disaster will put them in the must-fade category, but for now it’s hard to pick the Jags as a road favorite. With two AFC South matchups on the horizon, they could be caught looking past the Cardinals and they are in a terrible travel spot, with four roadies, including London, in six weeks. Trevor Lawrence has been inconsistent at best. Even though the Jags blew away the Chargers last week, he threw for only 153 yards after managing just 119 yards the week before. Jacoby Brissett did throw for 452 yards in last week’s loss. The Jaguars rank just No. 21 against the pass.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cardinals and the over.
PANTHERS at 49ERS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Niners by 6 ½, 49 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Before putting up 30 points on the Falcons for the second time last week, the Panthers scored only 7, 16, 9 and 13 points in their previous four games. Likewise, outside of his impressive performance against the jet-lagged Falcons last week, Bryce Young hasn’t progressed much. Injuries have ravaged the 49ers defense but they can still defend the run pretty well and that’s where the Panthers can beat you with Rico Dowdle. Mac Jones was a serviceable caretaker but Brock Purdy’s return has provided a QB upgrade.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: 49ers and the under.
BROWNS at RAIDERS
4:05 p.m., Raiders by 3 ½, 36 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Here’s the quandary. Geno Smith is pretty much done. Shedeur Sanders stinks even worse. Honestly, he was so bad last week that the Raiders are favored by more than a FG. Then we have Myles Garrett harassing Smith and Maxx Crosby all over Sanders. However, Sanders should see some improvement. He’s not coming into this one ice cold, he’ll have gotten first team reps all week and he’ll have a game plan around him. The Browns do have a couple of advantages with their defense and their running game. That should be enough to keep them close in this mother of all duds.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the under.
EAGLES at COWBOYS
4:25 p.m., Eagles by 4 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: The Cowboys’ defense has improved since Quinnen Williams changed uniforms. The ex-Jet has solidified a defensive line that actually looked halfway decent on opening day in Philly. The Eagles are grinding out wins these days and are shying away from their explosive components. OT Lane Johnson is on the shelf and the Eagles usually struggle without him in the lineup. Now C Cam Jurgens is in concussion protocol. The Eagles weren’t blocking well for Saquon Barkley even before these developments. Dak Prescott always ups his game against NFC East opponents. It’s either grab the points or nothing.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the under.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
VIKINGS at PACKERS
1 p.m., Packers by 6 ½, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: You would have made a profit fading both teams recently. J.J. McCarthy has shown us nothing. He was God-awful against the Bears. He’s early in his learning curve and it’s getting late in the season. Meanwhile, Jordan Love is inconsistent and with Josh Jacobs iffy, he is going to be up against a Brian Flores defense that stymied him in both games last season. Even though this is a rivalry game, the Packers could be caught looking ahead to their Thanksgiving Day showdown against the Lions.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Vikings and the under.
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BEST OF THE REST
FALCONS at SAINTS
4:25 p.m., Falcons by 1 ½, 39 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the under.
BUCS at RAMS
8:20 p.m., Rams by 6 ½, 49 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the under.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Browns. Make Deion’s day.
LAST WEEK: 8-7; OVER/UNDER: 10-5
OVERALL: 84-78-1; OVER/UNDER: 89-72-2
BEST BETS: 8-3
