PACKERS at LIONS
1 p.m., Lions by 2 ½, 49
HANK’S HONEYS: Throw out the Packers’ convincing win in the season opener. The teams have evolved. Still, there are plenty of reasons to pick the Packers. It looks as though RB Josh Jacobs will suit up while the Lions have the bulk of the injuries, with TE Sam LaPorta, along the O-line and in the secondary. Jared Goff’s efficiency drops considerably under pressure and Green Bay can bring it against his thinned-out protection. Detroit’s recent Thanksgiving Day history is not good. The Lions had a much tougher time of it against the Giants than the Pack did against the Vikings and should be the more worn-down team on a short week. Still, recency bias could be at play. The Lions were dreadful in Philly, for sure, and while we expected the usual bounce back against the Giants, they were caught looking past them to this one. Jordan Love’s inconsistency is still an issue and the fast track benefits the home team. We’re not ready to give up on the Lions and their explosive potential. They can’t play three stinkers in a row.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the under.
CHIEFS at COWBOYS
4:30 p.m., Chiefs by 3, 52
HANK’S HONEYS: The Chiefs’ pedigree was on display in a must-win comeback victory over the Colts. They are in championship mode now and more accustomed to winning these types of games. Their highly-ranked defense had one weakness — against the run — but the Cowboys do not have a Jonathan Taylor or an athletic offensive line. If they are going to have success, it will be on Dak Prescott’s arm and he and his receivers will be facing their biggest test of the year after progressing through a much easier set of defenses. Steve Spagnuolo can exploit Prescott’s protection. Dak is going to have to play a clean game. Meanwhile, we have Patrick Mahomes staring down a shabby Cowboys secondary. The Boys’ recent resurgence could be a mirage. As long as the hook is gone, it’s the team formerly known as the Dallas Texans.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chiefs and the over.
BENGALS at RAVENS
8:20 p.m., Ravens by 7, 51 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The smart pick is the over with the last six matchups racing past the total. Joe Burrow returns, along with Ja’Marr Chase but not Tee Higgins, and they will be throwing it all night to make up for a putrid defense that has allowed 28 or more points in seven of its nine games. There is certain to be some rust on the new Joe Cool after being out since Week 2, but consider that the Ravens have faced Tyrod Taylor, Dillon Gabriel, J.J. McCarthy and Tua Tagovailoa in compiling their five-game win streak (Caleb Williams being the fifth). The side is much trickier. The Ravens have won five straight but they haven’t been covering. Some of that has to do with Lamar Jackson’s status. He suffered a toe injury Sunday after missing three games with hamstring, knee and ankle concerns. While he will play on a short week, his threat as a runner is again compromised. Jackson challenged his offense to “do our job” this week so there’s that. Derrick Henry is one guy who might answer that call.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the over.
BEARS at EAGLES
Friday, 3 p.m., Eagles by 7, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: The Bears have won eight of nine, kicking mud into the eyes of bettors who have doubted them. That stops here. Only one of those eight wins came against a team with a winning record, last week against the Steelers. The combined record of those teams is 27-61. Similarly, Caleb Williams’ improved play has come while facing only one top 10 defense, when the Bears managed only 16 points in a late-October loss to Baltimore. The Eagles have a top 10 defense, and, in all likelihood, Williams will be forcing things against them playing from behind. The Bears’ defense has been getting it done by forcing turnovers. They have the NFL’s worst QB pressure rate (imagine Jalen Hurts constantly standing there, scanning the field) and have injuries in the secondary and linebacker. Saquon Barkley will have every opportunity for a breakout game after being mysteriously ignored in last week’s second half collapse in Dallas.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.
