Despite President Trump clinching a positive approval rating, Republicans are facing an erosion of support from independents in a troubling warning sign heading into the midterm elections, a survey from a conservative pollster showed.
Trump notched a 50%–46% positive to negative approval rating, but Democrats overtook Republicans for the first time this cycle on the generic congressional ballot question 45% to 44%, according to a conservative McLaughlin & Associates poll.
“If Republicans need around 60 million votes in 2026 to retake the House, there are more than enough Trump voters to do it — but as of 2025, the 75 million Harris voters appear more energized,” pollsters John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlin explained in a Newsmax piece on their poll.
“There is time to change it.”
Trump highlighted his positive approval rating on Truth Social. But the McLaughlin & Associates poll appears to be a bit of an outlier in terms of measuring the president’s approval rating.
On average, Trump has a net 11.7 percentage point job disapproval rating, per the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling.
Democrats also have a larger, 4.8 percentage point edge over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot question, per RCP.
The McLaughlin & Associates poll also had other warning signs for Trump and Republicans less than a year out from the 2026 midterm elections, in which the GOP is scrambling for ways to cling to their threadbare House majority.
When asked about the direction of the country, only 38% felt it was on the right track, compared to 56% who said the wrong track, the McLaughlin & Associates poll found.
On the economy, only 49% feel the economy isn’t in recession, tumbling from 58% in August. A whopping 77% of likely voters revealed they were battered by inflation, and 41% said the are having difficulty paying their bills.
Trump’s marquee legislation of his second term, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the GOP rebranded as the Working Families Tax Cut Act, scored lukewarm numbers from likely voters.
Independent voters oppose it 50%–35%, according to the poll. Overall, 46% of likely voters support the mega law, compared to 43% opposed, per the poll.
Additionally, Democrats have the edge over Republicans with independents (42%–26%), women (50%–38%) and Hispanics (48%–36%).
The McLaughlins noted that betting markets now indicate that Democrats have a 73% chance of taking over both the House and Senate.
Despite the warning signs, the McLaughlin & Associates poll also found some bright spots for Trump and Republicans.
Chief among them is Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) netting a 31% favorable to 44% unfavorable rating. Respondents also backed capitalism 63% to 17% over socialism.
And a hefty 64% back Trump’s high-level goal of putting America first.
The McLaughlin & Associates poll sampled 1,000 likely voters from Nov. 17 to 24 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
