THE BEST GAMES TO BET
GIANTS at PATRIOTS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Pats by 7 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Someone called the Giants the best 2-9 team in history. Unfortunately, they may be the worst ever holding a lead. That hasn’t stopped them from going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. As much as you hold your breath every time Jameis Wilson drops back to pass, he has brought the constant threat of the deep ball to the Giants offense. With the Pats’ pass D ranking 21st against a weak schedule, he should continue to find success and we’ll gladly take the hook. In any case, he and Drake Maye are going to be chucking it all night and should easily take this game over the total.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Giants and the over.
FALCONS at JETS
1 p.m., Falcons by 2 ½, 39 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Jets’ 7-4 ATS record scares us. Nothing else about them does and with this short a line, we just can’t back them. Tyrod Taylor is facing an excellent secondary that does not have to respect him throwing it downfield. If they can limit Breece Hall as a runner and receiver, they should win easily. Kirk Cousins was sharp last week and he will have Bijan Robinson testing the Jets’ questionable run defense. The Falcons have been much better at turning the ball over (the Jets have zero INTs) and getting after the QB (39 sacks to 19). That’s not a good combo for the home team.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.
SAINTS at DOLPHINS
1 p.m., Dolphins by 5 ½, 42
HANK’S HONEYS: While there is no denying how poor the Saints are, this feels like too many points, especially in that it’s going to be a low-scoring game. The Fins went into their bye week feeling very good about themselves, maybe a little too good. They can easily take the visitors for granted. Tua Tagovailoa really leans on De’Von Achane but the Saints rank in the top 10 of run stop units. He’s had some clunkers when Achane hasn’t produced. Tyler Shough had a tough go against a good Falcons pass defense last week but the Dolphins rank 26th in that category.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the under.
TEXANS at COLTS
1 p.m., Colts by 4 ½, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: Forget the teams, etc. You can go back decades. The No. 1 defense in the NFL should never be getting this many points. As much as we like the Colts’ offense, it hasn’t been producing tons of points lately. Daniel Jones, who needs to rebound from a less than stellar three-game stretch, had earlier been thriving off play action with Jonathan Taylor. However, the Texans defend the play action pass better than anyone else. C.J. Stroud could return this week but even if he doesn’t, Davis Mills is 3-0 and very serviceable.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the under.
JAGUARS at TITANS
1 p.m., Jaguars by 6 ½, 42
HANK’S HONEYS: The Titans have been close to an automatic fade all year and while the Jaguars aren’t exactly a 7-4 team, they’re still the better one here. Nevertheless, the Jaguars, though 3-0-1 ATS on the road, could be caught looking ahead to next week’s divisional showdown with the Colts. The Titans are still playing hard, despite three straight losses by a combined 16 points against a challenging Chargers-Texans-Seahawks lineup. Cam Ward finally showed potential in garbage time as the Titans got the back door cover last week.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Titans and the over.
CARDINALS at BUCS
1 p.m., Bucs by 2 ½, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Baker Mayfield’s status is up in the air, with veteran Teddy Bridgewater getting most of the reps. If it’s Bridgewater, we can see the Bucs rallying around him as often happens with backup QBs. This is a middle of the pack defense that has allowed big days to several receivers, setting up Emeka Egbuka to be the latest. The Bucs have been a good bounce back team following a loss.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the over.
RAMS at PANTHERS
1 p.m., Rams by 10 ½, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: The Rams are looking like the best team in the NFL and Matthew Stafford as the MVP. Los Angeles has a 4-1 SU record on the road with wins coming by 14, 14, 28 and 16 points. The Panthers’ best corner, Jaycee Horn, is in concussion protocol, safety Tre’von Moehrig is suspended and nickel corner Corey Thornton is out for the year. Meanwhile, Bryce Young faces his toughest defense yet. The Rams can get to the QB with just their front four, while playing great coverage behind it.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Rams and the under.
49ERs at BROWNS
1 p.m., 49ers by 6 ½, 39 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The forecast calls for rain, snow and wind, so in spite of the low total, we like the under. That will further hamper the 49ers offense, already at a disadvantage. Brock Purdy had a rocky re-start last week and things don’t get easier here. The Browns defend the middle of the field very well, which means George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey might face tough sledding. Of course, we’re not expecting Shedeur Sanders to accomplish much and he may have to do so, considering how well the Niners defend the run. Then again, we can see the Niners content to get in and get out on a short week and with their late bye upcoming.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the under.
VIKINGS at SEAHAWKS
4:05 p.m., Seahawks by 10 ½, 43
HANK’S HONEYS: J.J. McCarthy, who has been busily proving himself to be the worst starting quarterback in the league, has a concussion. Max Brosmer, an undrafted rookie free agent out of Minnesota via New Hampshire, will be facing the Seahawks’ beast of a pass rush. Brosmer has shown promise in his brief time on the field but he’ll be over his head here. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold gets to stick it to the team that let him leave in favor of keeping McCarthy. His numbers are horrible against teams that can bring pressure without blitzing, but the Vikings blitz off the bus and Darnold has a 65% completion percentage against the blitz.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the under.
BILLS at STEELERS
4:25 p.m., Bills by 4 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Aaron Rodgers’ possible return from a fractured left wrist doesn’t make much of a difference. In fact, it could work against the Steelers. They are going to feature the running game even more this week because of Buffalo’s cushiony defense against it. If Rodgers plays, the Bills can overplay the run without having to respect Rodgers’ limited range. Conversely, this sets up as a huge bounce back opportunity for Josh Allen, who is 15-9 ATS off a loss in his last 24 such scenarios. Pittsburgh’s defense stinks and with T.J. Watt not getting to the QB, he’ll have the time to pick out receivers.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the over.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
BRONCOS at COMMANDERS
8:20 p.m., Broncos by 6 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Broncos own all the matchups in this one but they’ve been very disappointing against inferior teams. They’ll be coming off their bye after a huge win over the Chiefs so the possibility of underestimating the Commanders is real. Of course, Washington is tied for the worst NFL record ATS at 3-8, 2-3 at home. Jayden Daniels is a long shot to return, leaving Marcus Mariota against the Denver defense, which is No. 1 in generating pass pressure and with Patrick Surtain back at corner and captain Alex Singleton at linebacker.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Broncos and the over.
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BEST OF THE REST
CHARGERS at RAIDERS
4:25 p.m., Chargers by 9 ½, 41
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the over.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Titans. Hold your nose.
LAST WEEK: 4-9-1; OVER/UNDER: 12-2
OVERALL: 88-87-2; OVER/UNDER: 101-74-2
BEST BETS: 9-3
