Republicans grabbed back the edge in the nationwide redistricting wars as the conservative-led Supreme Court has approved a new GOP-friendly Texas map that should help them flip up to five Democratic seats in next year’s midterms.
The decision nixes a lower court ruling and gives the Lone Star State the green light to use the new district lines aimed at forging a 30-8 seat Republican advantage in the already deep-red Texas congressional delegation, although Democrats insist they can hold at least two of the districts in the GOP crosshairs.
“Texas is paving the way as we take our country back, district by district, state by state,” state Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement.
Gov. Greg Abbott added: “Texas is officially — and legally — more red.”
Democratic National Committee chairman Ken Martin accused the right-wing supermajority on the top court of doing President Trump’s bidding.
“To allow Texas Republicans’ rigged, racially gerrymandered maps to go into effect is wrong — both morally and legally,” Martin said.
The new Texas map aims to boost the GOP edge from the current 25-13 advantage by chopping up to three Democratic-held districts in the Dallas, Austin and Houston areas. It also adds red-leaning turf to two swing districts in the heavily Latino Rio Grande Valley, giving Republicans a shot at flipping them too.
Democrats say they believe Rep. Henry Cuellar, whom Trump just pardoned in a bribery case and praised as “beloved,” and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez can win reelection to their south Texas seats, especially with Trump’s approval ratings way under water.
The Supreme Court ruling focused on the purported distinction between racial and partisan gerrymandering. It said Texas Republicans acted to gain a purely political advantage by enacting the new map, which is permitted under a previous precedent-setting ruling, not to suppress the power of Black and Latino voters, which would be illegal.
NY Daily News
As things stand now in the congressional redistricting wars, the Republicans would flip eight Democratic seats, while the Democrats would flip six GOP seats. (NY Daily News)
With the new ruling, a Daily News analysis now shows Republican have banked an expected net two-seat gain from Democrats in the unprecedented and still-shifting mid-decade map redrawing battle, counting the GOP moves in Texas and other red states and Democratic response in California and elsewhere.
Both parties are still working to expand their advantages in other states they control, which could allow Republicans to flip an additional seven seats while Democrats could grab six from the GOP, the analysis suggests.
Indiana’s state senate is expected on Monday to consider a bid backed by Trump to flip two blue seats.
When all is said and done, Republicans may see modest net gains of just a handful of seats from the redistricting wars, a far cry from the game-changing political earthquake Trump hoped for when he launched the fight last summer.
Political analysts on both sides of the aisle say the overall gloomy political outlook for Republicans is likely to be a much bigger factor in determining whether they can hold onto control of Congress.
Republicans hold a narrow seven-seat majority in the House, meaning Democrats would only need to flip a few swing seats to take control and put the brakes on Trump’s right-wing agenda.
History says the party of the sitting president typically loses a significant number of House seats in midterms, although there are far fewer swing seats up for grabs than in past election cycles.
