Nobody is memorializing the Kansas City Chiefs just yet, but as the losses stack up, it is fair to wonder whether their dynasty has reached its end.
Sunday night’s sobering 20-10 defeat by the Houston Texans eliminated the Chiefs from AFC West contention, snapping a streak of nine consecutive division titles.
The Chiefs are now 6-7, marking the first time in the Andy Reid era that they are below .500 this late in a season.
NFL.com puts their playoff odds at 15%. ESPN’s prediction model is even less bullish at 14.2%.
“We know the chances are getting lower and lower,” quarterback Patrick Mahomes said.
The Chiefs remain in the AFC wild-card mix, but even winning their final four games would not guarantee a playoff spot.
Kansas City began Monday two games behind Houston (8-5) for the seventh and final playoff position, but the Texans hold the tiebreaker thanks to Sunday’s head-to-head victory.
The Chiefs are in 10th place in the AFC and would also need to jump the Indianapolis Colts (8-5) and Baltimore Ravens (6-7).
It’s a stunning reality for a Chiefs team that’s made it to the AFC Championship Game in each of the last seven postseasons, advanced to the Super Bowl in five of them (including the last three), and won it three times.
“It’s never over, so you keep battling,” Reid said. “I’ve been doing this a long time, seen some things, so we keep going.”
But while the Chiefs’ demise seems sudden, their decline has actually been rather gradual.
The 2022 Chiefs were a juggernaut who tied for the NFL’s top record at 14-3 and boasted the league’s highest-scoring offense.
Mahomes won NFL MVP after passing for a career-high 5,250 yards with 41 touchdowns, while tight end Travis Kelce scored a career-best 12 touchdowns with 1,338 receiving yards in what remains his last 1,000-yard season.
That team won the Super Bowl over the Philadelphia Eagles in an instant-classic bout.
The 2023 Chiefs were far less dominant, finishing 11-6 while relying much more on their defense as their offense took a step back.
But that team, with its championship pedigree, put it all together when it mattered most and again won the Super Bowl, that time in an overtime thriller against the San Francisco 49ers.
And while last year’s team returned to the top of the NFL, finishing 15-2 in the regular season, there were reasons to believe their method of success wasn’t sustainable.
The 2024 Chiefs went an incredible 12-0 in one-score games, including the playoffs — a metric that suggests good luck and that made them an obvious regression candidate.
Those narrow victories included:
A game in which the Ravens’ Isaiah Likely’s toe landed out of bounds on a would-be-game-tying touchdown.
Another in which the Chiefs blocked the Denver Broncos’ would-be-game-winning 35-yard field goal as time expired.
And another in which the Las Vegas Raiders botched a snap with 15 seconds remaining and lost a fumble while already in range for a would-be-game-winning field goal.
The Chiefs’ offense remained middle-of-the-pack, with the extended injury absences of Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco and a career-worst season from Kelce leaving them largely devoid of playmakers.
The Eagles enacted revenge in the Super Bowl by routing the Chiefs, 40-22, in a game in which Philly at one point led 34-0.
And now this season, the regression hit hard.
While the Chiefs’ offense bounced back to be among the NFL’s better units, and the defense remains mostly stout, Kansas City began the year 0-5 in one-score games and is 1-6 overall.
That suggests much worse luck than last year.
But late-game execution has also been an issue of late — especially on Sunday night.
With 10:22 minutes left in the fourth quarter and the score tied, 10-10, Reid opted to go for it on 4th and 1 from the Chiefs’ own 31-yard line.
Kansas City failed to convert against the NFL’s stingiest defense, setting the Texans up deep in Chiefs territory. The subsequent drive resulted in Houston’s game-winning touchdown.
It was the first time Reid had ever attempted a fourth-down conversion inside his own 40 during the fourth quarter or overtime of a tied game, according to ESPN.
“It’s important that you take advantage of opportunities,” Reid said. “I thought it was an opportunity. I was wrong, though. Hindsight, it was wrong. We’ve been pretty good on fourth downs. I messed that one up.”
On their next drive, the Chiefs failed to convert on 4th and 4.
It was still 17-10 when the Chiefs got the ball back, but the Texans sealed the game with a tipped interception off of Kelce’s hands.
Mahomes finished 14-of-33 for 160 yards and three interceptions, marking the first zero-touchdown, three-interception game of his career.
And now the Chiefs are on the brink of another dubious first — missing the playoffs for the first time in the Mahomes era.
That could spell big changes for the Chiefs, even if the 30-year-old Mahomes’ championship window remains wide open.
Kelce, 36, contemplated retirement after last season, and he has not committed to returning in 2026. Mahomes alluded to that uncertainty on Sunday night.
“Every season I’ve had with him these last few years, I try to cherish because you never know,” Mahomes said. “He got himself in great shape this year and he’s played great football. He’ll have the option to do whatever he wants to do after this season, but I know one thing. He’ll give everything he has for the rest of this season to try to give us a chance to make a playoff run.”
Remaining on the Chiefs’ schedule are home games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Broncos and road games against the Raiders and Tennessee Titans.
It’s the NFL’s ninth-easiest remaining schedule in terms of opponent winning percentage (.451), according to Tankathon.
“We can control how we finish the season,” defensive tackle Chris Jones said. “We can finish strong and, God-willing, find a way to get into the playoffs. … We still got an opportunity, man, even though it’s a slim opportunity. … For us, the door is still open.”
