Every year come Oscars time, I hear two things:
“Who the hell cares?!” or “That movie f—ing sucked!”
And that’s just my mom.
True, the Academy Awards don’t get the ratings they used to. A massive 55 million Americans (about 20% of the country) watched in 1998 when “Titanic” won best picture.
Last year in the US, a comparably wimpy 20.2 million tuned in to learn what “Anora” is.
Still, that was enough to make the event the 17th highest-rated telecast of 2025 — on par with most Sunday Night Football games.
And even considering the almost-century-old ceremony’s diminished stature, the Academy Awards still inspire passion all over the globe, both angry and euphoric.
Last March, when Brazil’s “I’m Still Here” won best international feature film, revelers in Rio de Janeiro reportedly danced in the streets.
And after Netflix’s excruciating “Emilia Perez” scored a leading 13 nods, and viewers at home bravely pressed play, the bizarre French Spanish-language musical became one of social media’s biggest punchlines.
The Oscars, for many, still matter.
Voting for the 98th Academy Award nominations closed on Thursday night, and the contenders will be announced Jan. 22.
What’s going to infuriate the masses or send ‘em Samba-ing?
The big kahuna this time is “One Battle After Another,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio.
Yes, “Sinners,” the Southern vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan, could wind up with the most mentions because, beyond being an admired success, it has songs and effects.
It’s a no-brainer best picture nominee.
But don’t be misled by its high tally, even a potentially record-breaking one. “Emilia Perez” got 13 in 2025 and won a measly two.
“One Battle,” directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, has been steamrolling through award season even though it flopped, and there is no indication that its tour de triumph will end.
Anderson — the 55-year-old director of “Boogie Nights, “Magnolia” and “There Will Be Blood” — has never nabbed best picture or director before, and there’s a widely felt sense that his time has come.
The smart money is that it will.
DiCaprio and co-stars Teyana Taylor, Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro will all probably be listed off Thursday, and so could newcomer Chase Infiniti in best actress.
Does “One Battle” have any competition in best picture at all?
Sorta. The same night Anderson’s action-packed satire won the comedy Golden Globe, “Hamnet” (a better movie, actually), seized the drama prize.
The tragedy about Shakespeare’s wife, with its half-timbered houses and “to be or not to be”s, is also poised to perform well at the BAFTAs, the British Oscars.
But I’d be surprised if the intimate, intense story pulled a “Shakespeare in Love” shocker, despite industry adoration.
Chances are the gold it gets on Oscars night goes to its incandescent star Jessie Buckley for best actress.
Yeah, yeah, Rose Byrne has been scooping up accolades for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” She’ll get nominated, but that indie is too weird for the Oscars.
We all saw last year what weirdness got Demi Moore — jack squat.
The race everybody’s talking about is best actor — and specifically Timothée Chalamet vs. DiCaprio.
Chalamet, the 30-year-old star of “Marty Supreme,” seems unbeatable to me.
Despite love for DiCaprio and his strong work in “One Battle,” it is exceedingly rare for an actor to win for a performance that the movie doesn’t hinge on.
For example, the past six years the victor has played the title character in their film. (Yes, I’m counting “The Whale”). DiCaprio is one part of an ensemble, the members of which outshine him.
Chalamet’s “Marty Supreme,” on the other hand, would simply not exist without him.
He’s in nearly every second of it, and is absolutely extraordinary.
So is Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon” as Lorenz Hart. But a friend who watched it with a West Coast crowd at Telluride said the flick went over everybody’s tanned heads.
If Los Angelenos don’t care about a Broadway lyricist they’ve heard of, why would the 20% of Oscar voters who live abroad?
Back to best picture, where “One Battle,” “Sinners” and “Hamnet” will be joined by “Marty Supreme,” Norway’s “Sentimental Value” and “Frankenstein.”
The other five slots are up in the air, but likely wind up a mix of foreign films (say, Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” or Spain’s “Sirat”) and blockbusters like “F1” or “Wicked: For Good.”
Netflix’s overrated sleep aid “Train Dreams” has a good shot.
If the Academy is smart, they’d recognize “Weapons,” which was one of the most buzzed about original movies of the year and a major box office success.
Could it make the cut? I hope so. The Oscars need some shakeups.
The Golden Globes were so predictable, all night I longed for a more fun activity, such as washing the dishes or filing my taxes.
The Academy Awards air Sunday, March 15. And if you’re in the “Who the hell cares?!” camp, don’t worry. The whole exercise starts all over again next week at the Sundance Film Festival!
