From the moment the Yankees made their intentions to re-sign Cody Bellinger clear, the likelihood of them keeping their competitive balance tax payroll below $300 million became slim.
There was some speculation — and accompanying concern from fans — that that could happen at the start of the offseason given owner Hal Steinbrenner’s prior remarks about such a figure being unsustainable. And yet, with Bellinger agreeing to a five-year, $162.5 million deal on Wednesday, the Yankees are poised to blow past $300 million and the highest tax penalty threshold — it’s $304 million in 2026 – for the third straight season.
According to FanGraphs, the Yankees’ projected CBT payroll for 2026 is now at $317.8 million. Cot’s Contracts, meanwhile, has the club at $320.1 million. That ranks third behind the Dodgers ($402.5M) and Mets ($375.9M). The Phillies ($316.3M) and Blue Jays ($304.1M) round out the top five.
Back in November, Steinbrenner said the Yankees’ 2025 payroll ended up at $319 million. He also said it would be “ideal” to have a lower payroll in 2026, though he simultaneously acknowledged that that goal won’t necessarily be achieved.
“Does that mean that’s going to happen? Of course not,” Steinbrenner continued after declining to share a target budget. “We want to field a team we know could win a championship, or we believe could win a championship.
“Payroll has gone up probably every year. It doesn’t mean it won’t go slightly down one year and then up the year after that. It all depends on what’s out there and what the possibilities are and how much I feel we’re able – or we need – to pull the trigger on those possibilities.”
With the Yankees already well beyond $300 million and projected to be just below or slightly over $319 million – keep in mind that the team typically allocates some money for in-season moves – lowering payroll from 2025 would require the club to ignore the roster’s remaining shortcomings and shed some salary, which could create more holes.
Of course, the Yankees have neglected needs prior to Opening Day in recent memory; past concerns at third base and in left field are examples.
Presently, the Yankees could use rotation and bullpen help, but don’t be surprised if they decide to stick with a group that includes well more than five starters but will also require some time and patience for health and development.
“I really love our starting rotation next year,” Steinbrenner said, noting that Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are expected back in the earlier parts of the season.
Even if the Yankees stand pat with their pitching staff, the team has also been open about its desire to add a right-handed bat. That could come in the outfield and/or behind the plate, as the pinstripers are loaded with lefty swingers at those positions.
So far, it’s been a lackluster winter for fans in search of shiny new toys, as the only notable free agents the Yankees have signed have been members of last year’s team, which boasted the best offense in baseball and tied the Blue Jays for the American League’s best record but fell short of a division title and lost to Toronto in the ALDS. After a lengthy free agency, Bellinger joins a re-signee group that includes Trent Grisham, who accepted the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer; swingmen Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn; and righty-swinging utilityman Amed Rosario.
The latter three all signed one-year deals that don’t guarantee them more than $2.5 million.
Outside of those returning outfielders and depth pieces, the only free agents the Run It Back Bombers have signed have been of the minor league variety, with veterans Seth Brown, Paul DeJong and Zack Short among the group. The club also exercised a $3 million option on reliever Tim Hill.
The only newcomers to the major league roster have been starter Ryan Weathers, acquired in a recent trade with the Marlins and set to make $1.35 million in 2026; reliever Kaleb Ort, a waiver claim from the Astros; and Rule 5 Draft pick Cade Winquest, another reliever. Those last two shouldn’t be considered locks for a roster spot, though again, the Yankees’ bullpen is looking thin right now.
