AFC TITLE GAME: PATRIOTS at BRONCOS
3 p.m., Patriots by 5, 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Broncos would have been favored by 1 ½ with Bo Nix so it’s a 6 ½-point shift with Jarrett Stidham. Nix played one of his best games before being injured against the Bills, but many times this season he was no better than mediocre and the defense still carried Denver to a win. Our question, then, is, can Stidham play to the level of Nix’s worst games? Sean Payton has had success preparing backup QBs (Teddy Bridgewater) while in New Orleans and he’s certainly a good enough game planner to make the correct allowances — and with Stidham not having played in three years (before Drake Maye came into the league), what can Mike Vrabel anticipate in his preparation? The wild card is whether and how J.K. Dobbins plays. Since Week 11, after the Dobbins injury, the Broncos running game went downhill. Without him, the onus would fall squarely on Stidham, but Dobbins has been practicing and should suit up.
On the other side, we have always looked at the Broncos’ defense as not being as good as its stats, i.e., very good but not dominant, especially against top quarterbacks like Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen. Now, they’ll be facing an MVP candidate in Maye. Yet Maye’s playoff performances have been nowhere near his regular season, particularly in the area of ball security. No one had more sacks than the Broncos this season so Maye has to take care of the ball better. On the other hand, with the Broncos playing so much man coverage, there is more opportunity for the athletic Maye to take off and make something happen with his capable legs. Consider, too, that, while Stefon Diggs excels against man, he’ll be up against All Pro Patrick Surtain II. Then consider that Maye has been spreading the ball out to a deep receiving corps. The Patriots should win although the value is clearly with Denver. That’s a conundrum. And with so much speculation at play, the wiser bet may be the under. We know the Broncos aren’t going to open things up with Stidham and we know that these are two of the top-rated defensive units in the NFL.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the under.
NFC TITLE GAME: RAMS at SEAHAWKS
6:30 p.m., Seahawks by 2 ½, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s arguably the league’s best quarterback against the league’s best defense. On top of that you have one of the league’s best offensive minds in Sean McVay against a defensive genius in Mike Macdonald. There’s a good deal of recency bias at play the way the Seahawks have been rolling and the way the Rams have been squeaking by, particularly on defense. But a lot of that is warranted. The Seahawks stand out as the best-balanced team left and their defense has been insane. Outside of the last game against the Rams, a bit of an anomaly because it was a Thursday nighter, they have allowed two TDs since Week 13. The Seahawks have the best front four in the league. Mix in the blitz, which the Bears used to great effect last week, and Stafford will be under a lot of heat as he tries to work the intermediate areas between the linebackers and two-high safeties. No one sees the field better, but Stafford seems to be at less than 100%.
Without a doubt, the Rams have been Sam Darnold’s kryptonite, mainly because they can get quick pressure without blitzing. If this ends up totally on his shoulders, the Rams win. He folded against them in last year’s playoffs and threw six interceptions against them in the two games this year, greatly contributing to all those Rams points through gifted field position. The L.A. defense, however, hasn’t been dominating the point of attack. Zach Charbonnet is done but Seattle should be able rely on the other side of its two-headed in Kenneth Walker III and control the clock from its two-tight end formations. And then there’s this: since the 1970 merger, home teams are 15-5 straight up in conference championship games between division rivals. The perception is that this will be a high-scoring game, just as the Thursday night game was. However, if you’re the Seahawks, you don’t want Darold trying to match points with Stafford. You are going to want to control the game on the ground and with your defense.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the under.
* * *
WEEK’S BEST BET: Seahawks
LAST WEEK: 2-2, 1-3 over/under
OVERALL PLAYOFFS: 3-7, 6-4 over/under
BEST BETS: 1-1
