SEAHAWKS vs PATRIOTS
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
6:30 p.m., Seahawks by 4 ½, 46 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: There’s no question that the Seahawks are the better team. But this a very tricky betting line, as it would be in any regular season matchup. The generics favor the Patriots — underdogs have beaten the spread in the last five Super Bowls and are 17-6 ATS in the last 23. If the line got any higher, you’d have to start to lean New England. But the matchups favor Seattle, as does the gut. So let’s dig in.
Much has been made of the Patriots’ weak regular season schedule with their opponents combining for just a .391 winning percentage. After splitting games against the Bills and Ravens, they closed the season on a cupcake diet against the Jets and Dolphins. Then their postseason schedule road was made easier by facing three flawed offensive units. The Chargers and Texans had offensive line issues while the Broncos had Jarrett Stidham, not Bo Nix. Of course, they took advantage of everything put in front of them by winning 14 of their last 15, playing the brand of gritty football that mirrored their coach, Mike Vrabel, with his three Super Bowl rings as a player. But the point is that the Seahawks are far and away the best (and most complete) team they will have faced. The opposite is not true. The Seahawks have been tested more thoroughly and truly look like the best team in football. Doubts still linger with New England.
Comparing offensive and defensive units, Seattle rates a slight edge with each. While the Pats’ defense is top tier, the Seahawks’ defense is elite. While the Patriots are explosive on offense, the Seahawks seem to have more weapons. It’s the quarterback matchup that is most intriguing and could decide the outcome, and here, Sam Darnold has more to prove than Drake Maye. Had this game been played during the second half of the regular season, you would have given Maye a sizable edge over Darnold. Maye was establishing himself as an MVP candidate with the arm and accuracy to complete the deep ball combined with the instincts and running ability if the play broke down. Darnold, after a hot start, was into his Mr. Hyde persona — on his way to committing an NFL-high 20 turnovers (14 INTs, six lost fumbles). To favor Darnold now, you simply have to believe your eyes over the last stretch of games. Darnold can no longer be considered an Achilles heel after playing three straight clean games. He outdueled MVP hopeful Matthew Stafford in the NFC title game with his best performance as a Seahawk and is playing with scads of confidence, having dispelled myths about his mental toughness by standing tall against the Rams, his nemesis defense. He’s on a mission, as they say, and for the Seahawks to lose, he will have to revert to a pumpkin. Pats fans note with hope that he can be streaky but that usually occurs over several games. And let’s not forget that Darnold, while often maligned, still has the most wins of any QB over the last two seasons, going 30-7 SU, and 25-11-1 ATS.
Maye hasn’t been at his best in the playoffs, especially when it comes to ball security with six turnovers in his first two post-season starts. The Chargers, Texans and Broncos were all outstanding defensive teams and limited Maye’s ability to go deep with no completions over 25 yards. The Seahawks offer even more of a challenge because they severely test your mind as well as your skill. To that end, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is going to have his hands full because the Seattle personnel matches up perfectly with Mike Macdonald’s unique scheme. First off, McDaniels is going to want to protect his quarterback by relying even more on Rhamondre Stevenson, who has averaged 5.3 yards per carry since his toe injury return in Week 13. Stevenson is a physical, tackle-breaking runner with the best jump-cut in the business. But so far, no one has run on the sure-tackling Seahawks. They have gone 27 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher, having faced Christian McCaffrey twice, Kyren Williams twice, Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor once over the last month. Their defensive line, led by former Jet and Giant Leonard Williams and goes seven deep, simply lays down anchors and can’t be moved. They will be looking to dominate the line of scrimmage from the interior against an inconsistent offensive line. Center Garrett Bradbury (Darnold’s center in Minnesota last year) in particular has a rough assignment against the run, being more athletic and mobile than he is big and physical.
The same potential mismatch is there when the Pats pass. Maye has been sacked 15 times in the postseason with most of the pressure coming from the ends, not the interior. Maye’s running ability, a special part of his toolbox, allows McDaniels to sometimes add a sixth O-lineman to help rookie LT Will Campbell. Man coverage gives him more opportunities to take off but Seattle is in zone 80% of the time. Notably, the Seahawks have squared off against five running QBs this year and only Jayden Daniels (51 yards) did much against them. Overall, Seattle is hardly ever in base defense, utilizing a smothering hybrid scheme, often employing extra DBs in a big nickel look. Macdonald doesn’t blitz often, but when he does, it’s very effective because his DBs, especially safety Nick Emmanwori, can match up in man. They are well coached, and seldom have communication issues. Overall, we’re talking about an offense that has averaged 18 points per game in playoffs against a squad that led the league in regular season scoring defense at 16.4 points per game. Stafford is the only QB to have solved them and much of that came with his experience in seeing and reading the field. Maye has yet to see everything in his short career. It’s a small sample size but second-year QBs (Dan Marino among them) are just 2-3 in the big game.
Interestingly enough, the Patriots’ chief goal on defense is to cut off the run (Seattle’s foundation) and pressure Darnold. Their defense, too, presents similar problems because of its strength up the middle in DTs Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga. New England has allowed just 214 total rushing yards and 3.1 yards per carry in the postseason so Kenneth Walker III is going to have to get some traction. Always explosive and great after contact, it seems he’s become a better runner after taking on the full load following Zach Charbonnet’s season-ending injury. The Seahawks love to attack the perimeters with him so the Pats will have to set the edge. Limiting Walker would force Darnold to confront his demons. When he has had his issues in the past it’s when teams disguise coverages pre-snap. The Patriots do that well. Vrabel has turned on the blitz since Week 15, leading to 20 sacks in seven games and 13 turnovers, eight coming in the playoffs. Much of the pressure comes from a killer interior line led by Milt Williams and Christian Barmore. Quick pressure up the middle always gives quarterbacks fits, especially a pocket passer like Darnold.
That said, Klint Kubiak does have a huge ace in the hole with the most skilled offensive player on the field in the league’s leading receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. So while Seattle’s defense doesn’t need to match up with anyone specifically, New England has to figure out how it will cover JSN. Christian Gonzalez is one of the top corners in the league but he’s not necessarily a matchup corner. Do the Patriots use him to shadow JSN and how do they accomplish that when JSN lines up elsewhere, as he did in the backfield against the Rams?
If there’s an X-factor, it could be the Seahawks’ special teams and how they determine field position. New England’s Marcus Jones is a fine return man but Rashid Shaheed is special when it comes to game-changing, big play explosiveness. Veteran Jason Myers hasn’t missed a kick in the post-season while the Pats rely on rookie Andre Borregales.
We’re leaning over here, as well. Even though these are two of the best defensive teams in the league, both QBs are prone to turning it over and turnovers lead to field position and points.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the over.
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LAST WEEK: 2-0, 1-1 over/under
OVERALL PLAYOFFS: 5-7, 7-5 over/under
BEST BETS: 2-1
