James Talarico’s strong win in the Texas Senate primary and off-the-charts turnout has raised Democratic hopes for a blue wave in the fall midterms that could flip the Congress and deal a powerful blow to President Trump, analysts said Wednesday.
As the youthful rising star claimed victory in his heated primary battle with Rep. Jasmine Crockett, insiders on both sides of the aisle said the Lone Star State is a realistic target for Democrats especially as Republican primary candidates faced a bitter run-off fight.
The fresh-faced grandson of a south Texas preacher heralded the success of an unusual coalition including white progressives and Latinos that led to a record tally for a Democratic primary in the biggest red state in the nation.
“There is something going on in Texas,” Talarico, 36, proclaimed to cheering supporters in Austin. “A little bit of hope is a dangerous thing.”
Crockett, an outspoken congressional critic of Trump, won overwhelming support of Black voters especially in deep-blue Dallas and Houston. She conceded defeat, endorsed Talarico and urged her supporters to unite behind the Democratic ticket.
“Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united,” Crockett said in a statement. “This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track.”
Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News via AP
Rep. Jasmine Crockett speaks to her supporters during an election night watch party in Dallas on Tuesday. (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News via AP)
Even more startling, Democrats narrowly outvoted Republicans, an extremely unusual scenario in Texas where GOP voters typically cast about 60% of the total ballots in primaries.
Republicans, meanwhile, face the uncomfortable prospect of an extended and divisive feud leading up to a May 26 run-off between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and scandal-tarred Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Cornyn narrowly led Paxton, a sharp-tongued favorite of the party’s powerful far right-wing MAGA base, in the GOP primary, with Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing far behind. Trump has yet to weigh in on the primary race.
If he wins the run off, Cornyn would be a strong favorite to win a fifth term.
But Paxton, who survived near-impeachment on corruption charges and is embroiled in a nasty divorce, is another story. He would face a very tough battle with Talarico, who has proven his ability to win support of independents and even moderate Republicans.
Democratic success at winning back disaffected Latino voters is particularly significant because it amounts to a major snapback from the 2024 presidential election when Trump scored unprecedented gains with the group.
Analysts blamed Trump’s ugly immigration crackdown and the sputtering economy.
“The most significant thing was the collapse of the GOP’s new alliance with Latinos. Trump and ICE can take the blame for that,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political analyst, referring to the unpopular Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.
Basil Smikle, a Columbia University professor and Democratic strategist, said Talarico’s decisive win shows Democratic voters want candidates who can win in conservative red-leaning districts and states.
He advised Talarico to mend fences with Black voters, who comprise the backbone of the Democratic base, after the contentious primary.
“Talarico needs to make a direct appeal and not just rely on Crockett to help bridge that gap,” Smikle said.
Democrats need to flip four Senate seats and a handful of House seats to retake the Congress in the fall midterms. That’s a tall order but analysts say it’s increasingly doable as voter discontent with Trump bubbles up.
Polls show voters favor Democrats by a wide margin and Trump’s approval is hovering around 40%, an abysmal level that usually presages major losses for the sitting president’s party.
Aside from Texas, Democratic voters in North Carolina crowned popular Gov. Roy Cooper as their Senate candidate while Republicans picked Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair.
Democrats are favored to flip that seat after GOP Sen. Thom Tillis declined to run for reelection.
In deep-red Arkansas, Democrats flipped a bellwether state senate seat, the latest in a nearly unbroken string of impressive victories in special elections.
