The contract projections for Juan Soto have featured some truly eye-popping numbers. One of the most recent projections has the free-agent outfielder signing a 15-year, $750 million pact, blowing Shohei Ohtani’s contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers out of the water in both total money and present-day value.
Soto bet on himself when he turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract offer from the Washington Nationals in 2022 and it was a smart bet. Whether it’s the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox or Blue Jays, the team that pays Soto stands to benefit from a financial windfall.
According to Mark Conrad, director of the Sports Business Concentration and professor of law and ethics at Fordham University’s Gabelli School of Business, paying Soto what he wants is smart money.
“It’s supply and demand,” Conrad told the Daily News. “Some have compared him to the next Ted Williams. So, it basically becomes a more of a supply-and-demand aspect. Teams feel that he is going to be, literally and figuratively, a game changer. He could lead them to the promised land known as the World Series championship. And his statistics look that strong, and for all accounts, he’s in the prime of his career.
“So there are a lot of [positive] signs that would point to a $600 million plus contract.”
A contract like that could end up paying for itself. The presence of superstar players impacts a team’s bottom line, making the overall totals seem more palatable. It’s tough to ballpark a figure, but he’ll impact everything from ticket sales to branding efforts.
“They’re private organizations, so they don’t have to report [revenue] like a Fortune 500 corporation reports and makes financial statements,” Conrad said. “So you just have to go by estimates. And I think some of the estimates would certainly be increases in attendance, increases in ticket prices on the secondary market from last season for whatever team it is, and the merchandising and television ratings.”
The five teams in the mix for Soto all share one common thread in that they have stable broadcast situations. The Dodgers have an especially lucrative TV deal with Spectrum that allows the club to continually maintain a top payroll. The Blue Jays are owned by Canadian communications giant Rogers and broadcast on a network in the company’s own portfolio, SportsNet.
“Rogers is enormously wealthy,” Conrad said. “They could pay him.”
However, the taxes in Canada might not be appealing. Taxes are typically higher in Canada than in the United States because of their publicly-funded healthcare system. But then again, it’s not like taxes in New York City, Los Angeles or Boston are low either. The teams in Florida and Texas aren’t in the running, so the tax bill may not be a top consideration for Soto.
If Soto wants to stay in New York, he could have a bigger impact on the Mets than on the Yankees.
“For the Mets, I think it’s unbelievable,” Conrad said. “I think that these Met fans have waited close to 40 years. I think — if I would not dare exaggerate — but I think ‘The Messiah has come’ will be the attitude of some Mets fans. When Mark Messier came to the Rangers and delivered the [Stanley] Cup, you know, it was that feeling way back then that the Messiah came.”
Owners Steve and Alex Cohen want to turn the Mets into a global brand. They want the pop culture appeal and entertainment value. Soto would certainly help with that goal and would help change the narrative of being the “little brother” of the market.
“The Mets are not treated like a minor league team now,” Conrad said. “One thing to note, as a casual fan who went to Citi Field for the first time in a long time, it’s a much more fun experience. I think that the way they tailor the team and market the team as more of a neighborhood, Queens family team has helped them, especially with the park that they have. We thoroughly enjoyed it. Going to Yankee Stadium is going to the Roman Coliseum.”
Of course, it always helps when a team wins championships, and as we saw with Soto in the Bronx last season, one player doesn’t guarantee a championship.
Sometimes, the contracts don’t age well. A long-term contract means you pay for the prime and the decline. Albert Pujols signed a record deal with the Los Angeles Angels and helped the Halos reach the postseason only once.
But it’s rare a player like him hits free agency before the age of 30. If all goes well, Soto’s contract will pay dividends for the team that signs him.
“Tickets are just going to be even more expensive and harder to get,” Conrad said. “Imagine when the Dodgers come to play the Mets, and Soto is on the Mets. I mean, what will these tickets go for?”
