Marco Rubio embraces the title of Cold Warrior. His adversary, as he sees it, is not the old Soviet Union, which supported the Communist leaders of Cuba, the island his parents left in 1956. Rather, it is an array of nations working together to undermine American power in the 21st century.
They are China, Russia, North Korea and Iran — what some policymakers in Washington now call an axis of anger or grievance or anti-Americanism, a loose arrangement of hostile powers that the Biden administration has identified as a threat.
While in the Senate, Mr. Rubio made opposing the Chinese Communist Party a focus of his legislation. As secretary of state, he would likely try to strengthen U.S. alliances in Asia, a core policy of President Biden, to try to deter China from aggressive military actions.
However, Mr. Rubio will have to weigh that against President-elect Donald J. Trump’s deep skepticism of allies. Mr. Trump sees nations like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan — the territory most under threat from China — as free riders who rely too much on the American military for protection.
It is unclear if Mr. Rubio will adopt the Biden administration’s practice of trying to maintain high-level communications with Chinese officials. China imposed sanctions on Mr. Rubio in 2020, so in theory he would not be able to travel there. Regardless, Mr. Rubio is likely to wield the State Department’s own sanction powers against Chinese officials, having promoted greater sanctions against China as a senator.
Mr. Rubio sees Russia as another powerful enemy to be undermined. However, he voted last year against a bill supported by Mr. Biden that aimed to give billions more in weapons aid to Ukraine. He was going along with Mr. Trump’s anti-Ukraine perspective, and as secretary of state, he would likely push his diplomats to try to forge a negotiated settlement to the war between Ukraine and Russia.
North Korea presents another conundrum for Mr. Rubio. Throughout the Biden administration, Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, has refused to engage in diplomatic talks over his growing nuclear weapons program. He and Mr. Trump met several times during the first Trump administration, but they failed to agree to a grand bargain, which made Mr. Kim more hostile to the United States.
And now North Korea is assisting Russia in its war against Ukraine.
It is unclear if Mr. Trump, who admires Mr. Kim, will try to revive the personal diplomacy. In any case, Mr. Rubio will be charged with coming up with a way to curb the weapons program, despite decades of failed U.S. policy on North Korea.
Iran also poses a potential nuclear threat, though it does not have a weapons program yet. U.S. officials have assessed that it could enrich uranium to weapons-grade material within days, and create a weapon within a few months. Battered by U.S.-led sanctions and recent Israeli military action in the region, Iran has signaled that it might be willing to negotiate over its nuclear program. Mr. Rubio would have a say on whether to engage in those negotiations and, if so, how to conduct the diplomacy.
He would also be involved in diplomacy over a potential cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Taking over from Antony J. Blinken, he could speak to Arab and European leaders about a postwar plan for Palestinian residents of Gaza, which has been decimated by Israel’s military campaign.
