New polling of eight battlegrounds shows Donald Trump on the verge of completing a political comeback the cynics said was impossible after the 2020 election.
But he’s not quite there, per the Redfield & Wilton survey of 8,533 likely voters in the octet of battlegrounds, though the state-level data are encouraging.
Trump leads by 3 points in Arizona, 49% to 46%. He’s up by 4 in Florida, 49% to 45%. In Georgia, the ex-prez leads 48% to 47%. Nevada shows another 1-point lead: 47% to 46%. And it’s 48% to 45% for Trump in North Carolina.
This gets him to 268 electoral votes, forcing Kamala Harris to win the blue-wall states.
The poll suggests it’s possible, but Harris isn’t closing the deal.
The candidates are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Harris is up 47% to 46% in Wisconsin, giving her 236 electoral votes, with 34 hanging in the balance in the tied states.
What the pollster calls “vote switchers” — people who voted Joe Biden in 2020 but moved to Trump and who voted Trump 2020 but now want Harris — are driving the battleground movement.
In Nevada, 16% of Biden 2020 voters are moving over, compared with 7% of former Trumpers flipping to the Democratic column. Trump is also +6 with flippers in Florida and Michigan. Every other state shows the same momentum, but to a lesser degree.
Men are strong for Trump across the map, with Georgia the only state where the former president doesn’t lead the vice president; it’s tied, 47% to 47%. In Nevada, Trump leads Harris 54% to 40%, his biggest lead anywhere among his own gender.
There’s some evidence Trump is making inroads with female voters, as he leads Harris with the demographic in Arizona, 49% to 47%, as well as Georgia and North Carolina, 48% to 46% in each state.
Nevada is where Harris is strongest among women, leading with 53% to Trump’s 40%. She’s also at 50% in Wisconsin, with Trump garnering 43% support.
The economy is the biggest issue in every swing state polled here, suggesting Bidenomics will loom large in the ballot box, as between 65% and 73% say cost of living will be “extremely” important in how they vote.
Abortion and immigration are next in all the states but Georgia, where health care beats out the border.
