Republicans believe they can win New Mexico for the first time in 20 years — and conservative advocacy groups are spending big on Spanish-language commercials for the last two weeks of the election.
“New Mexico is the dark horse this presidential cycle,” Jay McClesky, a longtime political strategist for Republicans in the state, told The Post. “New Mexico hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years but Trump could change that.”
Sources say groups including the conservative advocacy group Election Freedom, as well as RFK Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again PAC, have ramped up their advertising efforts for a final push.
Election Freedom’s $5 million ad blitz is primarily going to pay for Spanish language ads that highlight how Kamala Harris and New Mexico’s Democratic senator Martin Heinrich have created inflation and allowed a surge in illegal immigration as crime rises — two issues voters in New Mexico overwhelmingly say they are focused on.
“President Trump is making huge inroads with Hispanic voters and is actually leading among Hispanic men in multiple internal polls,” McClesky said.
According to polling from KAConsulting, Harris is up just three points in New Mexico — a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020 — with an additional three percent of the population saying they remain undecided.
Internal polls conducted by the Trump camp, meanwhile, show a race that is nearly neck-and-neck, thanks in part to RFK Jr.’s support, sources said.
RFK Jr. — who was polling at 8% in New Mexico before throwing his support behind Trump in August — has moved some of his supporters to the right, which has helped put the state in play, sources add.
Kennedy, who now promotes the slogan “a vote for Trump is a vote for Kennedy” on his campaign materials, has also ramped up his ad spend in the state over the last few weeks.
Trump’s support among Latino voters has jumped to 40% this year — more than double the 19% of latino voters he won in 2016. While 47% of voters in New Mexico are Hispanic, which means the so-called Land of Enchantment is seeing a dramatic shift in polling, voters all across Southwestern border states are undergoing a transformation.
Catalina Miranda, a 26-year-old Tucson, Arizona, auto industry worker with family in the border town of Nogales, said she is voting for Trump because “a lot of Republican values align with Mexican values.”
And Erika Moreno, an El Paso, Texas, mother who is also the small owner of an online furniture store, said she will vote for Trump come November. An immigrant from Mexico who arrived in the US 24 years ago, she is fed up with the Biden-Harris administration for the countless illegal migrants who have filled her city’s downtown streets and turned it into a dangerous place for native customers.
“Folks are angry at her [Harris] here because people don’t want to come shop at the stores for fear of being assaulted, for people sleeping on the streets. Our taxes are paying for migrants to live in hotels,” Moreno said. “If Harris could not be a good border czar, how can she guide the whole country?”
In 2024, New Mexico had the highest violent crime rate of any state in the US, with 781 incidents per 100,000 people — more than double the national average.
“Biden won handily in 2020 because he ran as a centrist, but as Harris gets exposed as a far left candidate, that will move voters,” McClesky added.
“New Mexico has shifted blue but it’s not liberal or progressive … especially with respect to the border and crime,” he added. “Albuquerque [the most populous city in the state] voters in particular are focused on crime.”
Additional reporting by Joseph Treviño
