THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET
JETS at PATRIOTS
1 p.m., Jets by 7, 41 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: If the Jets can’t get it together this week, they never will. They will actually face an opponent worse off than they are. Aaron Rodgers picked apart the New England defense in the first meeting and the Pats have only regressed from there. They’ve given up an average of 25 ppg and have allowed 30 or more points three of the last four weeks. Haasan Reddick should give the Jets the pass rusher they need against rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Head coach Jerod Mayo called out his team for being soft and that was on full display against a meh Jaguars team in London. Going public with his comments isn’t likely to go over too well with his team. It’s entirely possible that their season is about to spiral out of control. On the other hand, the Jets’ season will effectively be over if they can’t prevail this week.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jets and the over.
GIANTS at STEELERS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Steelers by 6 ½, 36 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: As the Steelers go for the New, York, New York sweep, the question that must be asked is how in the world are the Giants going to protect Daniel Jones against T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith? With LT Andrew Thomas lost for the season, the Eagles had their way with Jones Sunday, sacking him eight times — and this pass rush is a step higher. The line might seem a tad high, but the Giants have been outscored by an average of 13 points in their five losses and have scored 15 or fewer points in four of their last five games. After being battered by Saquon Barkley while allowing 269 yards on 45 overall rushing attempts, they are going to face a similar challenge against Najee Harris, with the rejuvenated Russell Wilson ready to take advantage of any stacked boxes. And does anyone need to be reminded that Danny Dimes is 1-14 SU in prime time?
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the under.
FALCONS at BUCS
1 p.m., Falcons by 2 ½, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s hard to back the Bucs this week with Baker Mayfield missing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. While the Bucs gained 226 yards and scored three TDs on the ground against the Ravens, it’s going to be easy for the Falcons to bulk up against the run and force Mayfield to look for lesser targets. Kirk Cousins enjoyed his best game as a Falcon when he threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns in an overtime Week 5 win over Tampa Bay, and since then the Bus have lost their best corner in Jamel Dean. Slot corner Tykee Smith suffered a concussion Monday night, and the short week will make it more difficult for him to clear the protocol and suit up here. Dean’s replacement, undrafted rookie Tyrek Funderburk, will be giving up five inches in height to Cousins’ top target, Drake London, who uses his physicality to advantage.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.
PACKERS at JAGUARS
1 p.m., Packers by 4 ½, 50
HANK’S HONEYS: The Jaguars should be jet-lagged after two weeks in London while the Pack could be caught looking ahead to the Lions. That cancels each other out. The line would have been higher had the Jaguars not taken care of business against the Patriots but that was more a case of beating up on a terrible team that quit during the game. The Jaguars’ defense is one of the league’s worst — they made Drake Maye look pretty good in his first NFL start last week — and Green Bay can score. The Packers can also create turnovers. They lead the league with 17. And Trevor Lawrence doesn’t always take care of the ball.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the under.
TITANS at LIONS
1 p.m., Lions by 10 ½, 46 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: If you like sandwich spots, this is a beauty. The Lions are coming off a huge win in Minnesota before facing the rival Packers next week. The Titans are a mediocre non-conference team, and they will be spotting them 10 ½ points, in a season where big underdogs have been consistently beating the spread. On paper, the white-hot Jared Goff should burn Tennessee’s corners, but the Lions will miss deep threat Jameson Williams, who will begin a two-game suspension for using PEDs. Detroit’s pass rush suffered without Aidan Hutchinson and Will Levis could be under less mistake-inducing pressure. It just has the look of a game where the Lions will shut it down and get ready for Green Bay.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Titans and the over.
CARDINALS at DOLPHINS
1 p.m., Dolphins by 3 ½, 46 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The total seems too high, no doubt steamed there because of Tua Tagovailoa’s return. The Cardinals are going to be feeding James Conner. Miami’s only defensive weakness is against the run, and it makes sense to keep Tua on the sidelines. The Dolphins run an offense based on timing and rhythm and it’s going to take some time for Tagovailoa to shake off the rust. All that said, it’s a bad spot for the Cardinals. It’s a short week with a trip to the opposite coast for an early game. The Dolphins defense has been playing at a high level and Arizona’s passing game hasn’t been clicking. The Dolphins should be clicking by the second half, enough to cover the spread.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the under.
EAGLES at BENGALS
1 p.m., Bengals by 2 ½, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: The Cincy defense has looked good for two straight weeks but when you consider the opposition — the Giants and Browns — it’s been less than impressive. The Eagles swoop in with the NFL’s second-best rushing offense, ready to pound the rock against the NFL’s 21st-ranked run defense. When the Bengals faced the Ravens, with a running attack similar to Philly’s, they allowed 175 yards on the ground. If the Eagles get anything close to that production, it will also open things up down the field for A.J. Brown. Switch to the other side of the ball and the Eagles have another clear matchup advantage in the pits. They should pressure Joe Burrow, just as they did against the helpless Daniel Jones last week.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the over.
BEARS at COMMANDERS
4:25 p.m., Bears by 2 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Obviously, keep an eye on Jayden Daniels’ injury situation, but at this point it seems unlikely he will play. Nevertheless, Marcus Mariota is a capable backup quarterback and a good fit for the offense. He’s smart enough to run it without it falling apart. The Bears have won three straight, and their fans are getting over-excited. But those three wins came against the decimated Rams, the lowly Panthers, both at home, and the mediocre Jaguars in London. Even without Daniels, the Commanders are a step up in competition. The Bears just shouldn’t be favored on the road.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Commanders and the under.
PANTHERS at BRONCOS
4:25 p.m., Broncos by 7 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: If you’re afraid of the big spread, consider this: the Panthers are 1-6 ATS and have failed to beat the spread by a 16-point average per loss. They are the NFL version of this past season’s Chicago White Sox. They will also be going back to Bryce Young this week, which isn’t likely to rally the troops who were forced to endure his horrid play for the past year and a half. Throw him up against a very stout Broncos defense on the road and bad things are bound to happen. Bo Nix hasn’t shown the ability to push the ball downfield, but he’ll be able to rely on his running game and consistently good field position. With the total above 40, it’s a no brainer under bet. We can’t see Carolina breaking double digits.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the under.
COWBOYS at 49ERS
8:20 p.m., Niners by 5 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: Take the normal image of the 49ers out of your mind. They’ve struggled all year to beat good teams, and they’ll limp into this one without WR Brandon Aiyuk, with questions about Jauan Jennings’ and Deebo Samuel’s status and with George Kittle fighting a foot injury. The Cowboys’ run defense has been a mess but if Brock Purdy ends up missing so many weapons, they’ll be able to load up against Jordan Mason. Plus, there are more injury issues on their underperforming defense and problems with special teams coverage. The Cowboys were destroyed by the Lions, the worst home loss since 1988 two weeks ago but their bye could not have come at a better time, and it’s even better that they’re away from Dallas. Catching more than a field goal, it’s an easy Cowboys pick.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the under.
LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
COLTS at TEXANS
1 p.m., Texans by 5 ½, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s a weird line for a game between divisional rivals with first place on the line. The Colts have lost three games by a total of 11 points, including a two-point loss against Houston in the season opener. They’ve been finding ways to cover, especially as dogs, where they are 4-0 ATS. Their games against the Texans are always tight. Plus, Jonathan Taylor returns to the backfield this week. Still, there are reasons to like the Texans. While C.J. Stroud really misses Nico Collins, Joe Mixon has been carrying the load and the Colts have one of the worst run Ds in the game. Anthony Richardson is back at QB for Indy but he’s been less than impressive. Joe Flacco moved the team better when he was in there.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Colts and the over.
BEST OF THE REST
RAVENS at BROWNS
1 p.m., Ravens by 9 ½, 44 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the over.
BILLS at SEAHAWKS
4:05 p.m., Bills by 3, 47
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the over.
SAINTS at CHARGERS
4:05 p.m., Chargers by 7 ½, 40 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the under.
CHIEFS at RAIDERS
4:25 p.m., Chiefs by 9 ½, 42
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Raiders and the under.
* * *
WEEK’S BEST BET: Falcons. Bucs too beat up.
LAST WEEK: 6-9, 9-6 over/under
OVERALL: 47-57-3, 57-49-1 over/under
BEST BETS: 4-3
