New poll in NYC mayoral race finds Mamdani beating out Cuomo

Zohran Mamdani would defeat Andrew Cuomo to clinch the NYC Democratic mayoral nomination after eight rounds of ranked-choice voting, according to a new poll of this week’s primary.

The poll, conducted by Emerson College, PIX11 and The Hill, was released Monday, the eve of the primary election. Conducted between Wednesday and Friday, the survey marks the first major independent poll finding Mamdani overtaking Cuomo, who has otherwise consistently ranked as the favorite to win the race.

Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid sexual misconduct and pandemic mismanagement accusations he denies, still leads in the first round of voting, securing 36.4% support compared to Mamdani’s 33.7%, according to the new poll.

But after eight rounds of ranked-choice tabulations, the poll shows Mamdani surging past Cuomo, beating him by a 51.8%-48.2% margin. The Mamdani win comes after candidate Brad Lander — who has closely aligned himself with Mamdani – is knocked out of the running.,

The poll, which has a 3.4.% margin of error, quizzed a total of 833 registered Democrats, including ones who have already cast ballots in the 2025 mayoral race during early voting.

A spokesman for Mamdani didn’t immediately return a request for comment on the poll. Mamdani, a democratic socialist running on a platform that includes a vow to freeze rent for stabilized tenants, was set to hit the streets later Monday.

Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi downplayed the results of the survey, calling it an “outlier.”

“Every other credible poll in this election — including two release last week — has shown Gov. Cuomo with a double digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow,” Azzopardi said.

It is unlikely that the primary will be called Tuesday night, as the city Board of Elections won’t start tabulating ranked choices on voters’ ballots until next week. The only way in which the race could be called on primary night is if a candidate claims a simple majority of support in the first round, a scenario seen as unlikely.

The other candidates in the Democratic mayoral primary field only secured single digits of support in the new Emerson poll, with the exception of City Comptroller Brad Lander, who placed third with 13.3% support in the first round. In Emerson’s ranked-choice voting simulation, Lander got eliminated in the seventh round with 20.1% support.

Emerson’s pollsters found that voters under 50 broke for Mamdani by a 2:1 margin, while Cuomo leads with older New Yorkers. The poll also found that a majority of women overall support Cuomo by a 52%-48% margin, while men back Mamdani by a 56%-44% margin.

Most other polls of the mayoral race have found Cuomo holding a significant lead over Mamdani, a Queens Assembly member who was up until a few months ago a relatively unknown figure in city politics.

That includes a new poll released Monday that was commissioned by Fix the City, the pro-Cuomo super PAC, that found the ex-gov beating Mamdani by a 52%-28% margin after seven rounds of ranked choice voting.

The Emerson poll was conducted on the heels of a slew of major developments in the mayoral race.

Less than a week earlier, Mamdani and Lander, who has consistently polled as the No. 3 candidate in the race, cross-endorsed each other.

Then last week, Mamdani was endorsed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, an influential figure in the Democratic Party’s progressive wing, but also stoked controversy by defending the use of the phrase “globalize the intifada” in the context of protesting Israel’s war in Gaza.

Cuomo and other moderate Democrats have said Mamdani is by defending such language aligning himself with antisemitic causes, an accusation Mamdani  denies.

Speaking to the Daily News while canvassing in Brooklyn on Friday, Mamdani, who has accused Israel of conducting a “genocide” against Palestinians, said “globalize the intifada” is “not language that I use.” However, he couldn’t definitely say whether he has ever used the phrase.

“I don’t think so,” he said when pressed on whether he has ever used the phrase.

In the final stretch of the mayoral race, Cuomo’s campaign and super PAC have seized on the antisemitism issue, seeking to paint Mamdani as an extremist unfit to run the city.