Even with all of the losing they’ve endured over the last three months, the Mets control their own playoff destiny with less than two weeks left in the regular season.
The Mets (77-73) entered Monday’s off day with a 1.5-game lead over the San Francisco Giants for the third and final National League wild card spot.
The Arizona Diamondbacks were two games behind the Mets in the wild card standings, while the Cincinnati Reds were 2.5 games back.
That makes things simple. If they handle their business over the final 12 games, the Mets will be back in the postseason with a chance to erase all memories of their extended summer swoon.
“We need them all at this point,” Pete Alonso said Sunday, after his walk-off home run against the Texas Rangers snapped the Mets’ season-worst eight-game losing streak.
“No matter whether it’s today, tomorrow or however many games we have left, we need as many games as we can. We’ve just got to do the best we can to stack them.”
The Mets’ remaining schedule includes a mix of contenders and cellar-dwellers.
On Tuesday, the Mets begin a three-game series against the likely playoff-bound San Diego Padres (82-68) at Citi Field, then will host the last-place Washington Nationals (62-87) for three games over the weekend.
The Mets are then set to end the season with a six-game road trip, which includes a three-game series against the wild-card-leading Chicago Cubs (85-64) and a three-game set against the Miami Marlins (70-80).
Add up those four opponents’ records and they are exactly 299-299 (.500), giving the Mets the 14th-hardest remaining schedule in baseball, according to Tankathon.
Certainly, there are wins to be had on that season-ending slate, though those opponents could just as easily look at the Mets as the soft spot on their schedules. That’s because the Mets are only 32-49 since June 12 — an 81-game span that represents exactly half of the baseball season.
“If someone would’ve said to me, day one [of] spring training, ‘Hey, you’re gonna be, with 15 games, fighting for a playoff position,’ whether it was third in the wild card, second in the wild card or first, or in the division, I would have said, ‘I’ll take our chances.’ So here we are,” shortstop Francisco Lindor said over the weekend.
The Mets are five games behind the Padres, who hold the NL’s second wild card position. But the Mets might be catching the Padres at the right time, as San Diego is just 8-12 in its last 20 games.
Clay Holmes (11-8, 3.75 ERA) is set to start Tuesday night’s series opener, while the Mets plan to use Sean Manaea (1-3, 5.76 ERA) behind him in a piggyback strategy.
Manaea emerged as the Mets’ ace during last season’s run to the NLCS, but he’s struggled this year since returning from oblique and elbow issues and owns a 7.71 ERA over his last seven starts.
Michael King (4-2, 2.87 ERA) is scheduled to start Tuesday for the Padres.
The Mets have not listed a probable starter for Wednesday’s game, while Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.73 ERA) is slated to pitch that day for San Diego.
This weekend’s series against Washington is, on paper, the easiest one remaining for the Mets, but they are just 6-4 against the Nationals this year and dropped two of three to them in D.C. last month.
The Nationals have been far from pushovers of late, entering Monday with a 9-4 record in September. They began the day 24-29 since the All-Star break.
Those home series against the Padres and Nats loom especially large when considering the Mets are 31-44 on the road.
The Cubs, meanwhile, are 46-29 at Wrigley Field, which figures to make next week’s series there the toughest remaining test for the Mets. That said, Chicago entered Monday only 28-25 since the All-Star break.
The regular season then ends against the Marlins, who are 5-5 against the Mets, including winning three of four at Citi Field at the end of August.
No Mets fan needs to be reminded that 2007 ended with a loss to the Marlins on the final day of the regular season, capping a collapse in which the Mets blew a seven-game division lead with 17 games remaining.
The Mets own the tiebreaker over the Giants since they won the head-to-head season series, while the Reds hold the tiebreaker over the Mets. Because the Mets and D-Backs split their season series, that tiebreaker is yet to be determined.
The Diamondbacks entered Monday with MLB’s hardest remaining schedule, with a combined opponent winning percentage of .552, per Tankathon. The Reds had the sixth-most difficult remaining schedule (.528), while the Giants had the fourth easiest (.464).
Despite everything that’s happened, FanGraphs still gives the Mets an 80.5% chance of making the postseason.
“Every game now is important,” manager Carlos Mendoza said Sunday, before adding, “We’re right there.”
