CHIEFS at STEELERS
1 p.m., Chiefs by 2 1/2, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Steelers are 4-1 ATS at home, which is why this spread isn’t higher. But when you study the matchups, it’s easy to see the Chiefs covering the low number to clinch home field throughout the playoffs. The physical Ravens and Eagles caved in the Steelers’ defense the last two weeks, gaining over 800 yards while controlling the clock for a collective 72 minutes. Having been suitably beaten up, the Steelers must now take on one of the top ball control teams in the league on a short week, with the hard-running Isiah Pacheco returning from injury. Safety Joey Porter Jr.’s injury only compounds the problem, leaving Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce set up for a big day. Overall, the Steelers have been in decline since their great start, and while the struggling Russell Wilson gets WR George Pickens back, the third-ranked KC defense doesn’t give up much. The Chiefs are just 7-8 ATS on the season but 4-3 on the road, and many of those lines were inflated. They have won 16 straight one-score games, which this one figures to be. All of this makes the under the smart pick.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chiefs and the under.
RAVENS at TEXANS
4:30 p.m., Ravens by 5 ½, 46 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Houston’s injuries (and the continuing suspension of LB Azeez Al-Shaair) are the biggest concern. WR Tank Dell and DB Jimmie Ward, two huge components on either side of the ball, are out for the season while OG Shaq Mason is week to week. The Ravens, of course, are very capable of taking advantage in each instance. Dell’s loss leaves the Texans thin at receiver with Stefon Diggs already down for the year. There’s no one to take the attention off Nico Collins. Ward, meanwhile, would have been key against TE Mark Andrews and in the slot. Mason’s absence further compounds communications issues along a leaky O-line with the Ravens’ pass rush heating up. The Ravens will have to deal with Houston’s edge rushers but Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry should be able to do some damage on the ground. Baltimore will be further motivated should the Steelers lose to the Chiefs.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the over.
