TORONTO — Never in a gazillion years did I think I’d be writing an analysis of The Rock and Sydney Sweeney’s Oscar chances.
But, hey, a driverless car costs more than a manned Uber in San Francisco. Anything can happen.
The main portion of the fall film festival season ended today with the Toronto International Film Festival. And now the bulk of the artsier Academy Award contenders have premiered.
Consider that last year, the eventual winners of Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress had all been seen by now — a whole six months before the “you like me!”s.
Which brings me to Dwayne Johnson and Sweeney. Can these anti-prestige outsiders Rock the boat?
Maybe. The unlikely contenders have certainly chosen the right type of roles to do so — gritty brawlers. Johnson plays MMA fighter Mark Kerr in “The Smashing Machine” and Sweeney is boxer Christy Martin in “Christy.”
Fisticuffs worked out pretty well for Robert De Niro (“Raging Bull”), Hillary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”) and Christian Bale (“The Fighter”) — all gold-getters. “Rocky” and “The Wrestler” also scored acting nods for its respective stars, Sylvester Stallone and Mickey Rourke.
Despite their strengths, this latest duo aren’t shoo-ins.
Sweeney’s movie, actually, was better received by Canadian audiences (and by moi) than “Smashing,” which got a meaningless 15-minute standing-o in Venice plus a brow-raising directing award for Benny Safdie.
In “Christy,” the 28-year-old “Euphoria” star is transformative in a meaty role that spans tumultuous years of an abused woman’s life.
On the other side of the ring, Johnson tones down his star wattage in a chill, relatively non-eventful film that plenty yawned at. Another critic at the Canadian premiere said to me, “I was bored and was just waiting for something to happen.” Not the ideal takeaway from a sports movie.
Johnson does his best work ever, but I didn’t like the vehicle he’s stuck in.
The Rock still has the better shot.
The Academy will squirm over Sweeney’s overblown American Eagle denim debacle (“good genes”) after the Karla Sofia Gascon “Emilia Perez” social-media meltdown last year.
And they’ll slobber at 53-year-old Johnson’s personal storyline — WWE fighter to Schwarzenegger-like novelty star to serious, risk-taking actor. He boasts a powerful blend of acclaim and super-fame.
A boon to Sweeney, meanwhile, is the Oscars often honors ingenues. Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, Emma Stone and most recently Mikey Madison have all won in recent years.
Either could get nominated, I suppose. But neither will win.
The single best showing of the big fests was “Hamnet,” a heart-wrenching drama that imagines William Shakespeare and his wife losing their 11-year-old son. It immediately established star Jessie Buckley as the Best Actress frontrunner. She’s simply unbelievable.
Not giving up yet, there are other women with their sights set on the Dolby Theater stage.
We’ll keep hearing about Emma Stone, who’s in a weird movie from “Poor Things” director Yorgos Lanthimos called “Bugonia.” And Rose Byrne is in a — word of the day! — weird movie called “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.”
Buckley’s biggest threat, though, is likely Cynthia Erivo, whose role as Elphaba in “Wicked: For Good” will be more hard-hitting and dramatic than in the first one, which scored her a nom last year.
The Best Actor race is more of a nail-biter.
At TIFF, I loved Brendan Fraser in the touching “Rental Family,” about an American in Japan who pretends to be a little girl’s dad for money. He’s sweet, complex and easily empathetic. What could ding him is it’s not a showboating part like “The Whale.”
Stellan Skarsgård might break in for playing a has-been director in the Norwegian flick “Sentimental Value.” Overrated and extremely European, that one will annoy the hell out of me all the way to March.
Buzz is loud on Leonardo DiCaprio in “There Will Be Blood” director Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another.” Reviews drop for that heavy-hitter on Wednesday.
But the big unknown is from the star of “A Complete Unknown.” The film “Marty Supreme,” which stars Timothee Chalamet as a table tennis ace. Folks say the Christmas Day release has an appealing whiff of “Catch Me If You Can.”
And one person who’s seen and adored “Marty Supreme” told me, “It’s Timmy’s year.”
He’s been nominated twice, but never won before.
Timmy may be a third of the Rock’s size, but at the Oscars he’s always a sizable opponent.
