Upstate Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik is running neck-and-neck in a hypothetical race for governor against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, a new poll obtained by The Post claims.
The incumbent governor up for reelection next year would have the support of 43% of New Yorkers with Stefanik pulling 42% for Stefanik — as about 15% of the electorate is still undecided, according to the independent survey by right-leaning firm co/efficient.
In a potential Republican primary for governor in 2026, Stefanik has a dominant edge with 56% of voters, with Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler receiving only 9% and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman with 8%, the poll found.
Hochul had only a 30% approval rating among the 1,163 likely voters, while 57% disapproved in the survey. President Trump fared much better in the poll, with a 44% favorability rating among New York voters while and 49% disapproved.
The governor’s tanking favorability numbers were a far worse result than the 44% favorability reported in a Siena College poll just released on Tuesday. That survey also reported Stefanik with a sizable but tighter lead — with 35% support of GOP voters to 22% for Lawler and 11% for Blakeman.
No Republican has officially announced that they are running for governor next year.
The co/efficient poll found only 23% of respondents said Hochul deserves reelection while nearly two-thirds or 63% preferred someone new.
“Hochul’s re-elect score further highlights her inherent vulnerability,” said co/efficient pollster Ryan Munce.
As for Stefanik, 34% of voters rated her favorability, 32% unfavorably while the remaining 34% said they were unsure or had not heard of her.
Co/efficient surveyed 1,163 likely voters from May 1-2 via phone and text. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Pollster Munce said the outcome of the 2026 gubernatorial race will depend on where Trump and the ruling Republicans in Congress stand nationally heading into the midterm elections.
During his first term as president, Republicans were trounced in New York in the 2018 “blue wave” midterm elections.
Then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo won re-election to a third term in a landslide as his fellow Democrats picked up seats in the House of Representatives. Meanwhile, Republicans were knocked out of power in the state Senate.
But Munce also noted that Trump is more popular than he was in his first term, particularly among men and voters not enrolled in a political party.
Munce and his co/efficient have conducted surveys for the House Republican caucus and statewide GOP candidates across the country as well as some local Democratic candidates. But the firm also does independent surveys.
HIs firm conducted independent polling in New York’s 2022 gubernatorial race, where Hochul ultimately defeated former Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin, now Trump’s Environmental Protection Secretary, by a narrow 6 percentage points.
A poll that co/efficient conducted two weeks before the election showed a dead heat between Hochul and Zeldin and had Hochul up by 6 points a month earlier.
Hochul’s campaign dismissed the newest poll and vowed the incumbent would trounce Stefanik, if she decides to run for governor.
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“Elise Stefanik represents the worst of Washington extremism — a staunch Trump loyalist who is gutting New Yorkers’ healthcare and fighting to rip away their rights,” said Hochul campaign spokesperson Jen Goodman.
“We welcome the opportunity to contrast Gov. Hochul’s record of putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, supporting our kids, and keeping communities safe with Stefanik’s out-of-touch, divisive and dangerous record — and fast-track her unemployment once and for all.”
