By GEIR MOULSON
BERLIN (AP) — German voters go to the polls Sunday to elect a new parliament that will determine how the country is run for the next four years.
Europe’s biggest economy is the 27-nation European Union’s most populous nation and a leading member of NATO, as well as the second-biggest weapons supplier to Ukraine, after the United States, following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Germany’s next government will be central to Europe’s response to an assertive new U.S. administration.
Here’s a look at what to expect for Sunday and beyond.
What happens on election day?
Polls are due to open at 8 a.m. and close at 6 p.m.. Germans can also vote by postal ballot, but their ballot must arrive by the time polling stations close on election day to be counted.
Exit polls will come and vote-counting will begin immediately after voting ends, and the general picture of the outcome should be clear very quickly. A final official result is expected early Monday.
Who are the contenders?
Four candidates are running to be Germany’s next leader: incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the center-left Social Democrats; Friedrich Merz, the candidate of the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union party; current Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, of the environmentalist Greens; and Alice Weidel, of the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD.
Preelection polls have put Merz’s Union bloc in the lead with support of about 30%, ahead of AfD, with around 20%. Scholz’s Social Democrats and Habeck’s Greens are further back.
Merz is favored to replace Scholz as chancellor, but it’s not yet clear what governing coalitions will be possible after the election. How easy it is to form a government may depend in part on how many parties are in the new parliament. Opinion polls show three parties hovering around the 5% of the vote needed to win seats.
All mainstream parties say they won’t work with AfD.
What’s up for grabs?
At least 59.2 million people in a country of 84 million are eligible to vote for the new Bundestag, or lower house of parliament. It is the 630-member Bundestag that will elect the next chancellor, Germany’s equivalent of a prime minister.
There are 29 parties on the ballot, but it’s likely that between five and eight of them will get enough votes to win seats in parliament. In most cases, parties must win at least 5% of the vote to get a share of the seats.
What happens after polls close?
Germany’s electoral system rarely gives any party an absolute majority and opinion polls suggest that no party is anywhere near one this time. The country has no tradition of minority governments at national level, which means that two or more parties will most likely form a coalition.
There is no formal referee for the process of forming a new government, and no set time limit. Parties hold exploratory talks to determine who they have most common ground with, and one combination of parties then moves on to formal coalition talks.
Those negotiations typically produce a detailed coalition agreement setting out the new government’s plans. That will typically need approval at least from conventions of the parties involved. Some parties may choose to put it to a ballot of their entire membership.
Once that process is complete, the Bundestag can elect the new chancellor.
What’s at stake?
A strong German government would be important to Europe’s response to the new U.S. administration and to turmoil in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Germany and neighboring France have traditionally been the motor of the EU, but both heavyweights have been consumed by domestic political instability in recent months.
This election is being held seven months earlier than originally planned because Scholz’s three-party coalition collapsed in November as it argued about how to reinvigorate the economy, which has shrunk for the past two years. One of the new government’s most urgent tasks will be to find a coherent response to that problem.
Another challenge will be further reducing irregular migration, which has been a top issue in the campaign.
Merz has said he hopes to form a new government by mid-April if he wins. Scholz’s outgoing government will remain in office on a caretaker basis until the Bundestag elects the new chancellor.
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