The Yankees and Mets made major changes this winter, but if one leading model’s projections are correct, both teams will finish the 2025 regular season in similar positions as last year.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings project the Yankees to win 89.7 games and for the Mets to win 88.9. The projections, which came out Monday, envision both as playoff teams.
The Yankees’ projected win total is the highest among American League teams. It’s the fourth highest among MLB clubs, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers (103.8 wins), Atlanta Braves (92.4 wins) and Chicago Cubs (90.6).
PECOTA projects the Yankees to win the AL East over the Baltimore Orioles, whose projection of 89.2 wins is not far behind.
It gives the Yankees a 78.2% chance of making the playoffs.
The Mets, meanwhile, are projected to finish second in the NL East behind the Braves but ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies (87.5 wins), who won the division last year.
PECOTA predicts the Mets to be the top NL wild card team. It gives the Mets a 77.5% chance of making the playoffs.
As MLB.com explains it, PECOTA “uses predicted depth charts to establish the projected runs for and against each team, before gleaning a projected win total from that.” PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm.
Last year, PECOTA predicted the Yankees to win 94.4 games and the AL East. That proved to be a strong prediction, as in reality, the Yankees went 94-68 and claimed the division crown.
The 2024 projection predicted the Mets would win 83.5 games and make the playoffs as the NL’s third wild card team. The Mets ended up going 89-73 and did indeed earn the third wild card spot.
The Yankees lost superstar slugger Juan Soto to the Mets this offseason, then pivoted by trading for outfielder Cody Bellinger and closer Devin Williams and signing ace Max Fried and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
In addition to giving Soto a record-setting 15-year, $765 million contract, the Mets re-signed left-handed starter Sean Manaea; added Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to their rotation; and bolstered their bullpen with A.J. Minter.
The Mets’ projection could change if they re-sign first baseman Pete Alonso, who remains a free agent.
