We will know shortly after noon today if the House Republicans have their act together enough to elect Mike Johnson as speaker. The American public gave them the majority, albeit a very narrow one, and it is their responsibility to coalesce and govern.
The Constitution says that the 119th United States Congress begins at noon today, Jan. 3, and commands them to meet at that time. Even before the members of the House are sworn in they must first elect a speaker. Such is normally a formality, but the tiny GOP majority has dissenters.
There are 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats and one vacancy, with 218 votes needed to elect a speaker. Thomas Massie says that he will not vote for Johnson, so one more defection will doom Johnson. Two years ago, it took 15 ballots and until Jan. 7 for Kevin McCarthy to crawl over the finish line, fatally weakened. He was ousted less than a year later by a rebellion led by Matt Gaetz.
Gaetz backs Johnson, but since Gaetz is not taking his seat today, his heavily Republican Florida district goes unrepresented (that’s the single vacancy) and it deprives Johnson of a needed vote, empowering any one member who chooses to join Massie. Republicans can thank Gaetz for making their predicament even worse.
The Democrats, spanning the ideological range from conservatives to socialists, are 100% unified behind Hakeem Jeffries, who will get 215 votes on every ballot taken.
If the balloting takes as long as last time, it will interfere with the certification of the results of the Electoral College. Everyone knows now that happens on Jan. 6, at 1 p.m. We don’t expect a mob of disappointed Kamala Harris supporters to sack the Capitol, but can we expect an organized House of Representatives?
Donald Trump won the election fair and square and should be certified, officially becoming president-elect, but ironically, it is his own political movement that has now imperiled that process moving forward smoothly. Gaetz, as MAGA as they come, is the one who broke the speaker election in 2023 and is adding to Johnson’s woes with his vacancy.
As with keeping the government open, the notion of certifying a presidential election should be the sort of thing that’s more or less automatic for a Congress — the routine business that happens in the background of more controversial business and which no one should have to think that much about. Unfortunately, the Congress of the last few years has been characterized by a consistent inability to do the basics, let alone legislate much of anything at all.
Political chaos is one of Trump’s starkest legacies, and now the chickens are coming home to roost, in ways that go beyond his certification. Already, his gallery of misfits are clashing, with figures like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy now publicly fighting with the MAGA base over employment-based visas before Trump even takes office.
Ego and bullying are part of the brand that Trump has built around himself, but this congressional dysfunction might be just one of many instances where the incoming president and his entourage might find that this approach is not a particularly solid one for the project of governing, and inherently unstable as the egos keep growing and clashing.
