House Republicans’ official campaign arm rolled out its target list of Dem seats Monday it hopes to flip in the 2026 midterm elections, as the party seeks to fortify and expand its threadbare majority.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) listed out 26 Democratic seats, including three in New York and one in New Jersey that it believes are vulnerable.
“House Republicans are in the majority and on offense,” NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) said in a statement.
“Meanwhile, vulnerable House Democrats have been hard at work demonstrating they are painfully out of touch with hardworking Americans,” Hudson added. “Republicans are taking the fight straight to these House Democrats in their districts, and we will unseat them next fall.”
At the moment, Republicans have a 218- to 213-seat majority. When the dust settles and vacancies get filled up during special elections, that’s expected to rise to a four-seat majority, which gives them very little breathing room on tough legislation.
The NRCC is trying to convey confidence as it stares down historical headwinds where the party in control of the White House takes a political beating in the first midterm election cycle. In 2018, for instance, Republicans hemorrhaged 21 seats during the blue wave year.
During the 2022 elections, Democrats dramatically outperformed expectations but lost five seats to Republicans. Some analysts believe that after the latest round of redistricting, which mostly concluded in 2022, the lower chamber is less conducive to dramatic swings than it once was.
But Hudson and the NRCC are hopeful they can buck history by taking aim at the 13 House Democrats who won a district that President Trump carried last November, among other potentially vulnerable reps.
For context, only three House Republicans won districts that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried.
Targeted Dem reps on the NRCC’s list in the tri-state area include: Nellie Pou of New Jersey; Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen and Josh Riley of New York, all three of whom flipped a GOP-held seat within the past year.
Others on the list are: Josh Harder, Adam Gray, George Whitesides, Derek Tran and Dave Min of California; Darren Soto and Jared Moskowitz of Florida; Frank Mrvan of Indiana; Jared Golden of Maine; Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan; Don Davis of North Carolina; Chris Pappas of New Hampshire; Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico; Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Steven Horsford of Nevada; Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes of Ohio; Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas; Eugene Vindman of Virginia and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington.
Almost all of those reps, except Pappas, are on the Cook Political Report’s list of Democratic toss-up or lean Dem seats.
Pappas is now rumored to be eyeing retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-NH) seat, potentially creating an opening. Over two years ago, he had fended off a spirited challenge from now-White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in the 2022 midterm elections.
Many of those Democrats on the NRCC list are also moderates who have been targeted by the NRCC in the past. Nevada, for example, has long been a deeply competitive state, where Republicans only have one House seat. The other three House seats have proven to be elusive for some time.
Golden’s race in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, had been one of the tightest contests last cycle. He’s been coy about whether he will seek reelection in 2026.
Suozzi’s seat had briefly been in Republican hands under Long Island’s lying former Rep. George Santos who was eventually expelled from Congress.
During the 2024 cycle, the three tightest races Republicans won had a combined victory margin of about 7,000 votes.
Between the 2020 and the 2024 elections, some 419 congressional districts hewed more red, including over five dozen that swung toward Republicans by double digits.
On the Senate side, Republicans will have to defend 22 of the 35 seats up for grabs in 2026, while Democrats only have to protect 13. Democrats also have at least three incumbent retirements, while Republicans only have one so far.
