Don’t look now, but the Mets, almost left for dead, are once again one of the favorites in the National League. A home sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies has them only four games back from first place in the NL East, and 4.5 games ahead of the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Wild Card race. The Mets will face both the Phillies and Reds on their next road trip, and later in September, they’ll see the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs, the two teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings.
A hot start provided them with enough of a cushion to overcome a disastrous summer, but with things on the downswing, the Mets rediscovered their groove, and their chances are improving.
“Baseball is crazy,” manager Carlos Mendoza said Wednesday night.
It sure is, but crazy has long defined the Mets, for better or worse.
Owner Steve Cohen likes to say that he’s a big believer in “the back of the baseball card,” meaning he trusts players that put up consistent numbers year-over-year, and he trusts the executive who identifies the trends. Players will either regress or progress to the mean. The Mets will, too.
Fangraphs lists the Mets chances at making the playoffs at 96.8%, and winning the NL East as 25.1%. The team has continued to say that their summer skid was only temporary. They weren’t wrong in saying that every team hits peaks and valleys. Whether they’re completely out of the valley yet is going to be determined by starting pitching, but the timing of their revival couldn’t have come at a better moment.
Here’s how they did it.
CLUTCH HITTING
Up until August, the story of the season was the Mets’ seeming inability to hit with runners in scoring position. The question was valid: Can the Mets handle prosperity? A deep lineup was swinging at bad pitches for weak contact, chasing them out of the zone, or missing them completely for strikeouts with runners in scoring position.
Mark Vientos might be hotter than he was in the playoff last year, slashing .395/.442/1.416 during a 10-game hitting streak with 17 RBI and six of his 13 home runs this season over that span. Brett Baty, a key left-handed bat, has slashed .351/.422/.596 with four home runs, two doubles, seven RBI, 16 runs and seven walks over his 18 games since Aug. 2.
As a whole, the Mets have hit .368 with runners in scoring position in August, the best mark in baseball. It’s a stark contrast from the lowest points of the season when the team was among the worst in the league hitting with runners in scoring position. They’re chasing pitches far less. In August, they struck out only 35 times with RISP, tied for the lowest in baseball with the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Mets attributed many of their offensive struggles to bad luck, and some of that is valid. But sometimes you have to create your own luck.
“I feel like approaches have been there, but just getting the results, that helps,” Mendoza said. “When you hit a ball hard and you’ve got two guys on, and you [hit it] right at someone, then you’re making that right turn back to the dugout. A good swing, but you know, you need those to start falling.”
The series against the Phillies was defined by two-out rallies. This shows the Mets’ approach under pressure, and the bottom of the order has been coming through for the top to finish the job.
“Throughout the whole year we haven’t been able to put consistent at-bats as a whole,” Mendoza said. “One guy gets going, two guys cooled off. But right now we’re seeing guys clicking at the same time.”
VETERAN LEADERSHIP
Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil have been the unsung heroes for the Mets this season. While Pete Alonso and Juan Soto have garnered most of the attention — and for good reason — the other three have quietly come through for the Mets when it mattered the most.
Their splits from the month of August:
Marte: .273/.339/.527
Nimmo: .257/.352/.324
McNeil .273/.323/.443
It took time for Marte to adjust to a new role this season, but once he did, he produced. A close friend of Soto, Marte may not be considered in the same leadership category of Nimmo or Francisco Lindor, but at 36, he’s been through plenty in baseball, and he has the drive to win.
“It’s been awesome to see him succeed the way he has after struggling with injuries,” Nimmo said. “It’s just amazing, and I’m so happy for him because he’s gone through a lot to try and get back out on the field on a consistent basis, and he’s just doing an unbelievable job for us.”
IMPROVED PITCHING
Kind of. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here because Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga, the two pitchers projected to be the best in the rotation, have been anything but. But Wednesday night, it was clear the Mets wanted to play for rookie right-hander Nolan McLean.
Consider the eighth inning. After McLean allowed back-to-back singles to put runners on the corners to open the inning, he got two fly balls, one to right and to left. Soto and Nimmo held the runners on, making good plays on difficult throws. The defense plays for anyone who pitches, and Clay Holmes and Manaea have brought that up in recent days, but McLean clearly energized the Mets. Jonah Tong could do the same Friday night.
“That’s a perfect example right there,” Mendoza said. “They’re playing for their guy right there. They’re not going to [let the Phillies] score any runs. You saw how Juan got behind the ball, even though he could have just caught it and thrown to second base to keep the runner at first base from advancing, but he was like, ‘No.’ Same thing with Nimmo.”
