WASHINGTON — This past weekend’s leak of two Pentagon documents assessing Israel’s readiness to strike Iran has revealed just how little the Harris-Biden administration knows about the US ally’s future plans, experts tell The Post.
The FBI confirmed Tuesday it is probing the leak of the documents to Telegram last week from the account @Middle_East_Spectator, which has a track record of posting pro-Iran content. The papers had “top secret” markings and featured material that had been dated Oct. 15 and 16.
While any intelligence leak is concerning, in this case, the problem is not so much the secrets that were exposed as the revelation the White House is largely on the outs with the Jewish state, according to Atlantic Council senior fellow Alex Plitsas, a former Pentagon official.
“What was exposed in the commentary on [one of the documents] is that we still can’t assess the [Israeli] intentions, which is basically saying we don’t know what it is that [Israel is] planning to do, and we’re watching where these are indicators and warnings that are going to help us determine their readiness and what it is they might be planning,” Plitsas told The Post.
US relations with Israel have been strained after the White House repeatedly called for restraint in the Benjamin Netanyahu government’s response to the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas that killed an estimated 1,200 people in southern Israel.
The lack of communication means the US is lacking critical intelligence from Israel — and thus is less prepared to predict and deal with fallout from future actions, according to Israel Education Association senior policy director EJ Kimball.
“That could be dangerous for the United States,” Kimball explained, “because an Iranian response, we may not be able to anticipate what type of response Iran will take pending what Israel is planning to do.”
Meanwhile, the leak itself is still expected to further damage trust between Washington and Jerusalem.
“What we should just be aware of right now is the likelihood that Israel is going to keep the US at a little bit more arm’s length in its response,” Kimball said. “Without that intelligence — those eyes and ears on the ground — it will harm our interests in the region, including our troops.”
“There is a significant lack of trust operationally between Israel and the United States,” he added, “it’s a very dangerous situation that’s now happening where the next administration will have to work to rebuild that trust.”
While the documents gave some insight into Israel’s ongoing actions, such as repositioning weapons systems, veteran Middle East watchers said the biggest harm would be to future operations by letting adversaries know what the Pentagon is watching for in the lead-up to a strike.
“If you’re Iran and you see how the US is assessing Israel’s preparedness for an attack, you can reasonably assume that’s the same way the US is using the same methodology for others that may be preparing attacks, including when Iran’s preparing an attack,” Kimball said. “It’s dangerous to the US side that we may have exposed some of our sensitive methodologies with the enemy.
“Knowing how we do this puts us in danger and limits our capabilities to adequately assess what may be happening in the world to anticipate [an attack],” he added.
“If Vladimir Putin ate a banana for lunch, the fact that it was a banana is not exactly top secret information,” Plitsas explained. “But if you know the fact that we’re watching what he’s eating, or that there’s three people that knew he eat a banana right for lunch, that becomes the sensitive part, maybe not so much the information itself.”
While the source of the leak remained unclear as of Tuesday, the motives of the leaker clearly appear to be helping Iran.
“This undermines our relationship with an ally, provides our adversaries with an advantage, and is in blatant violation of the National Security Act and disseminating, classified information that exposes sources and methods,” Plitsas said.
“This was just egregious and really irresponsible, at a very dangerous time, where we are very close to war in a place that we don’t want to be going to war in.”
