BILLS at BRONCOS
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Broncos by 1, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: Josh Allen is on a mission. He played through injuries and put together a fourth quarter drive when he needed it most against a very good Jaguars defense, especially up front. One might say that the Broncos defense is even better but we’re not sure. In spite of its ranking and it’s league-leading sack total, that defense was riddled by Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love and even Jaxson Dart. Yes, the Buffalo WR corps is paper thin right now but outside of Patrick Surtain, there are holes for Allen to find (watch how they cover Buffalo’s outstanding group of tight ends). Bo Nix’s inconsistencies are an issue against an improving Bills pass defense. Nix doesn’t do well when confronted with a variety of pre-snap looks — and that’s what Sean McDermott did against Lawrence. Denver also relies on yards after the catch and the Bills are near the top of the league in defending YAC. And, while Buffalo’s run defense is below mediocre, RJ Harvey may not be able to take advantage of any potential mismatch. Playoff experience is one-sided and the Broncos have yet to really prove themselves against top caliber competition this year. The majority of their convincing wins came against bottom feeding teams. Given that the Broncos must rely on time of possession to keep Allen on the sidelines, we’ll go under the total as well.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under.
49ERS at SEAHAWKS
Saturday, 8 p.m., Seahawks by 7 ½, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: The under looks good here. Seattle has the best defense in the NFC. The Seahawks generally grind it out on offense and the Niners’ defensive philosophy is to keep everything in front of them. This will be a low-scoring one. We just don’t see Seattle running away with this against a familiar divisional rival. The teams meet for the second time in three weeks after the Seahawks’ 13-3 win in the Week 18 showdown for the NFC West and the top seed. That works in the favor of Kyle Shanahan, who will certainly make adjustments off that game tape. Losing George Kittle hurts because the Seahawks are one of the NFL’s worst teams defending tight ends and what he means as a run blocker. However, Christian McCaffrey will end up playing a bigger part in the passing game. Plus, OT Trent Williams’ absence was evident in the last game when the Niners managed only a FG. His return changes everything. There are points to be made for the Seahawks. The 49ers do not pressure the quarterback and Sam Darnold is a completely different QB when and when he doesn’t have time. There’s also the horrible schedule the NFL dealt the 49ers, having to return from Philadelphia to face the rested Seahawks on a short week. Still, it feels like too many points.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: 49ers and the under.
TEXANS at PATRIOTS
3 p.m., Pats by 2 ½, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: The Texans’ defense is elite. The Steelers didn’t stand a chance against them. But that was largely because Aaron Rodgers can’t move. Houston’s edge rushers just met at the target. Drake Maye can move and he has a big edge on CJ Stroud. Granted, Stroud made some big plays in Pittsburgh but he was a turnover machine earlier and looked panicked under pressure. The Pats’ front dominated in the pits last week. Granted, the Chargers’ O-line is porous but the Texans have had protection issues as well. It’s also looking as though Stroud’s most reliable receiver, Nico Collins, will be sidelined with a concussion. Woody Marks could have success running inside against a D-line that’s more about penetration than being a wall. Maye will have to play better than he did last week, especially because the Texans neutralize running attacks. But he should after getting through his first playoff start. In all probability, the Patriots won’t have to light up the scoreboard. It might take just a few big plays down the field and that is where Maye displayed his MVP credentials all season. It’s going to be a drag-out affair. We like that this line is under a field goal. If the hook was on the other side, we’d lean Texans.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
RAMS at BEARS
6:30 p.m., Rams by 3 ½, 51
HANK’S HONEYS: A lot depends on Matthew Stafford’s finger. All Rams bets went down the tubes last week after he hit it on a teammate’s helmet. X-rays were negative and he says it’s fine but we shall see. Then there is the expected 10-degree temperatures. Stafford has played his entire career either indoors in Detroit or in the warmth of LA. He has not been a good bad weather QB. However, Stafford has excelled when he has a clean pocket and the Bears do not have a pass rush. In general, Chicago’s D has been all about creating turnovers. They aren’t great at any level. As for the Bears’ O, can their all-important run game prosper against this Rams’ front? The Rams are excellent at keeping runners from getting to the edges. They can also bring in a fifth D-lineman, something that has given the Bears issues. The Rams’ front is disruptive so Caleb Williams is going to have to make some off-schedule plays like the game-saving fourth and 10 he converted last week. The Rams’ secondary has been exploited over the last month or so. Quentin Lake had a rough time in his first game back from injury last week and he’ll probably be matched up against TE Colston Loveland, Williams’ biggest third down threat. The Bears could be having one of those magical seasons . . . a team of destiny. Given that both of their home losses have been by three points, we’ll take the hook.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the under.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Bills. Josh beats Bo.
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PLAYOFF RECORD
LAST WEEK: 1-5, over/under 5-1
BEST BETS: 1-0
