They say lightning never strikes the same place twice. But the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement is electrifying payrolls across the league — and the Knicks may be staring down a familiar storm.
Because just like Isaiah Hartenstein, Mitchell Robinson needs a raise and a contract extension, and the Knicks, boxed in by the league’s punitive second apron, don’t currently have the flexibility to give him one ahead of the Feb. 5 NBA Trade Deadline while keeping their flexibility to stay beneath the threshold for next season.
It’s the exact scenario the Knicks have worked to avoid in recent years.
They didn’t extend Immanuel Quickley before including him alongside RJ Barrett in the OG Anunoby trade with the Toronto Raptors. And they picked up Quentin Grimes’ rookie option but declined to lock him into a long-term deal, eventually moving him to Detroit for Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks.
In each case, the front office opted to punt on a young player and instead keep their books open for business. This time could be different. Robinson reaffirmed his importance to the Knicks’ title hopes with 10 offensive rebounds in 18 minutes in the NBA Cup Final victory over the San Antonio Spurs. He’s recorded at least five offensive boards in seven of his 17 appearances this season.
Yet the two sides failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension during the offseason and tabled negotiations entering the regular season. Without an extension in place, Robinson — the defensive anchor and longest-tenured Knick on a roster with championship aspirations — will be free to test the open market next summer.
Trading a player ahead of an uncertain free agency is often prudent. But there isn’t another player on the roster — or many across the league — who combines Robinson’s dominance on the offensive glass with his rim protection. And there certainly isn’t one doing it on a $12.9 million salary. Robinson hauled in 10 offensive rebounds in just 18 minutes during the Knicks’ NBA Cup Final win over the Spurs.
His value comes with caveats. Robinson’s injury history complicates long-term planning. His free-throw shooting makes him vulnerable to intentional fouling in high-stakes moments. These are trade-offs the Knicks have been willing to live with — until the reality of unrestricted free agency forces the issue.
On paper, the Knicks have options. Packaging Robinson with Guerschon Yabusele brings outgoing salary close to $19 million. Add Tyler Kolek — whose value far exceeds his $2.1 million cap hit — and New York could target a $20 million impact player. But consolidating three rotation players into one would strip the very depth that has powered the Knicks’ rise this season. And even at that price point, finding an apples-to-apples replacement for Robinson’s rebounding and defensive impact is nearly impossible.
That’s what makes the next seven weeks so delicate.
Without Yabusele — who holds a $5.8 million player option for next year — the Knicks already have $200.9 million in guaranteed salary committed to eight players for the 2026-27 season: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Miles McBride, Pacome Dadiet and Kolek. That leaves just $16.3 million beneath the projected $223 million second apron, with nearly half a roster still to fill.
And Robinson is due a raise. If availability weren’t a concern — if not for a twice surgically repaired left ankle and a strict load-management plan — Robinson’s production would put him squarely in the market that paid Hartenstein three years and $89 million to leave New York for Oklahoma City in 2024. The impact is undeniable. The risk is unavoidable.
The Knicks could choose to keep Robinson and push deeper into the second apron. But doing so comes with consequences:
- Loss of the taxpayer mid-level exception (used to sign Yabusele)
- Restrictions on aggregating multiple outgoing salaries in trades
- Inability to trade the 2033 first-round pick
- Loss of access to prior trade exceptions
- And if the Knicks spend three seasons in the second apron over a five-year window, that frozen 2033 pick automatically converts to No. 30 overall
Only one team has already crossed into the second apron for the 2025–26 season: the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Knicks, just $148,000 beneath Apron No. 2, sit on the razor’s edge, one of four teams within $4 million of the line alongside Golden State, Dallas and Minnesota.
New York could very well join that list next season. Keeping this roster intact while giving its rim protector a deserved pay raise would leave the Knicks with no alternative but to wade into the league’s most punitive financial waters.
Time, however, is not on their side. The decision point is approaching fast, and deferring it carries its own risk. Leave it to chance, and the Knicks may find themselves on the wrong side of another familiar outcome. History says lightning doesn’t strike the same place twice — but the NBA’s new CBA may have been designed to make sure it does.
