They are still recovering in Detroit after the Tigers’ crushing Division Series loss to the Mariners when it was reported the other day they will very likely now also be losing their best player, Tarik Skubal.
The disheartening news, which came via a report from Skubal’s agent Scott Boras’ principal media operative, was that there is a gap of nearly $250 million between the Tigers and their star pitcher who will become a free agent at 30 after next season. No one was quite sure where that figure came from since it’s not clear if the Tigers have even begun any negotiations with Boras, but the Detroit media speculated it stemmed from what they called the “non-competitive” four year extensive offer the Tigers made to Skubal after the 2024 season and the anticipated $400 million deal Boras is said to be seeking now.
In any case, no one believes Tigers owner Chris Ilitch has the stomach to compete with the large market behemoths and dole out a record 8-9 year, $40 million per deal for a pitcher, such as the Yankees gave Boras client Gerrit Cole in 2019. Which leaves the Tigers between a rock and a hard place with Skubal, who is about to win his second straight Cy Young after leading the American League in ERA (2.21) and finishing second in strikeouts. Do they hold onto him one more year, knowing that, without him, their prospects of getting to the World Series in 2026 — or even making the postseason at all — are considerably diminished?
Or do they trade him now in hopes of getting maximum value of 3-4 prospects for him as opposed to only draft pick compensation if he leaves as a free agent? To that I would submit — assuming Boras would not do a new contract for Skubal before he hits the free market — there are only a few teams that would trade for him as a one-year rental with the confidence they could sign him.
The Mets are one of those teams — actually maybe the only one with the Dodgers and Yankees seemingly at full quota with their starting pitching — and they certainly have the necessary prospect quarry even if Nolan McLean is deemed untouchable. Plus, they couldn’t have a bigger need than a top quality frontline starting pitcher. The question for them is just how high is Steve Cohen willing to let his payroll go? With Juan Soto at $51 million and Francisco Lindor at $34 million, is he really prepared to add another player at $35-$40 million?
I would also add this for Cohen’s consumption: As great a pitcher as Skubal has been, in Game 5 of the ALDS — the biggest game of his life and the biggest game of the Tigers season — when he came off the mound after six innings and 99 pitches, he said he was done. Where have you gone Bob Gibson — three World Series, eight complete games?
If I had to guess, I’d say the Tigers ignore Boras’ proxy-based contract drum beating, hold onto Skubal and ride him as far as they can next year.
IT’S A MADD, MADD WORLD
It sure looks as if the marriage between Bryce Harper and the Phillies has formed some cracks. In his season-end mediafest, Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski raised eyebrows when he cited Harper — whose .844 OPS this year was his lowest since 2016 and his .261 average lowest since 2019 — as one of his concerns going forward. “He’s still a quality player. He’s still an All-Star caliber player, but he didn’t have an elite season like he’s had in the past,” Dombrowski said. “I guess we will only find out if he becomes elite or continues to be good.” It’s worth noting that Dombrowski was not the GM when the Phillies signed Harper to the 13-year/$330 million contract in 2019 (the largest in history at the time). Only last year, Harper and his agent Scott Boras were pushing Phillies owner John Middleton for an extension. In the ALDS against the Dodgers, Harper was 3-for-15 with no RBI in the Phillies’ four game loss. … If there was ever a need for a salary cap in baseball, look no further than the Dodgers-Brewers ALCS where the Dodgers’ payroll of $350 million is $229 million higher than the 17th ranked Brewers. That’s more than the TOTAL payrolls of more than 20 teams. In addition, in the four-game Dodgers sweep, the Brewers went with Aaron Ashby as an opener in two of the games while the Dodgers’ four starters — Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani — had a combined AAV salary of $165 million.
