PHILADELPHIA — The last time the Mets came back to win a game after being down in the eighth inning or later, it was when Pete Alonso hit that infamous home run in Game 3 of the Wild Card series against the Milwaukee Brewers last October. Alonso was floored when heard, thinking the Mets had to have had a ninth-inning comeback at some point this season.
Wrong: The Mets are 0-60 when trailing after the eighth inning this season.
“That’s kind of tough to wrap my mind around,” Alonso told the Daily News this week in Philadelphia. “I’m puzzled.”
So is everyone else in Queens.
The Mets have lost their last three by a margin of only five runs, with comeback opportunities in the eighth and ninth innings each time. Monday night, trailing the Phillies by 1-0, the Mets had runners on second and third with only one out. Jeff McNeil had a good at-bat, lining one just foul before closer Jhoan Duran ultimately struck him out.
Francisco Alvarez then chased three pitches out of the zone for the third out. One good at-bat, one bad one, almost characteristic of the Mets as a whole this season.
This stat is particularly perplexing considering last season was defined by thrilling comeback victories. The Mets then carried the knowledge that they’re never out of games into the postseason, where they continued to surprise in late innings.
This year, the lineup is largely the same and the coaching staff is the same. However, it is a different season, after all. Francisco Lindor cautioned against assuming intangible trends could continue from year-to-year.
“Last year was last year, it’s a completely different year,” Lindor told The News on Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. “There were moments where we didn’t think we were going to win, and then we won. The, I think there were moments where we thought we were going to win, but we didn’t win, and there were moments that nobody thought we were going to win. So it’s been a a really different year.”
Lindor and Alonso, two key team leaders and two key offensive cogs, still see the same grit and resolve they saw last season. They still see a team trying to fight. The Mets are 33-33 in comeback wins this season, but only 7-8 in walk-off situations, and 5-6 in extra innings. The offense tends to put up runs early, then go quiet the rest of the game.
They’re 26-42 when the opponent scores first, 60-10 when leading after six innings, 64-7 with a lead after seven innings, and 67-3 after eight. Conversely, when trailing after six, the Mets are 9-52, and after seven they’re 6-59.
It’s tough to be able to isolate one specific reason. Lindor shouldered some of the blame himself, saying as a leader, he needs to come through in those situations. Alonso, who was unaware of that record until this week, wants to see specific stats in those two innings, like BaBIP, which measures luck, and first-pitch strikes, and home/road splits since the Mets have been so much better at Citi Field than away from it.
“I mean, the quality of at-bats, I mean they’re there,” Alonso said. “BaBIP? That’s a good way to start. As a defense, you want to bear down, so balls have a lesser chance of becoming hits because defense is probably more alert. They’re trying to hold it down for their pitchers and trying to finish the game out strong, so if there’s something there, then maybe there’s something? I don’t know. It’s really interesting.”
Some of it feels a bit random and probably is. The Mets are digging into the numbers and the video to try to identify any specific trends, but they’re running out of time. At this point, they have to just play.
“It’s surprising because of the quality of the hitters that we’ve got,” said manager Carlos Mendoza. “I keep saying it, we’re missing that big hit. You know? I like the fact that we’ve continued to create traffic as of late. We saw it yesterday, and the last day in Cincinnati. We had an opportunity, one hit away from taking the lead. But we haven’t been able to do that the whole year, pretty much.
“Again, you continue to trust those guys, and they’ll come through.”
The bullpen hasn’t always protected leads, which has been part of the team’s skid from first-place in the division to falling behind the Phillies by eight games. The bullpen has posted a 4.31 ERA since July 1, but they’ve only blown eight saves in that time. Ultimately, it’s on the offense, defense and pitching to come through late in games. The Mets may not have to tread water so much if they could put up a few extra runs, then protect them, in the eighth and ninth.
“It’s collective, but again, obviously we’re a good team, so we’re going to receive everyone’s best effort,” Alonso said. “But, yeah, I don’t know. I think you could write like a thesis paper on this. There are probably so many different layers or rabbit holes you could go down. You stumped me.”
