House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a tricky fight to retain the gavel on Friday as the Republican leader kicks off the new Congress with a razor-thin majority.
Holding only a four-vote edge in the chamber, Johnson likely cannot afford to lose the backing of more than one fellow GOP lawmaker as he seeks a full two-year term as leader of the fractious caucus.
The vote will be far from a lay up for the affable Louisiana conservative, even with the endorsement of President-elect Trump, the party’s undisputed leader.
Rep. Tom Massie (R-Kentucky) has already declared that he will not vote for Johnson, leaving the speaker with no apparent further wiggle room.
A handful of fellow hardliners have suggested they may join Massie’s rebellion at least until they can squeeze Johnson to make concessions on some of their pet issues as they have successfully done in the past.
An additional wild card could be Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz, a fiscal conservative who has said she will no longer caucus with Republicans and hasn’t agreed to back Johnson.
Republicans are in a tight spot because they performed unexpectedly poorly in House races during the recent election, underperforming Trump’s popular vote and electoral college wins.
They won 220 seats compared to 215 for Democrats. But ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) resigned his seat in November in a failed bid to become Trump’s attorney general and has said he will not return for the coming Congress.
Assuming Gaetz keeps his word and Massie votes against Johnson, that would leave the speaker needing the votes of the remaining 217 other Republicans, plus Spartz, to win the gavel if Democrats as expected all show up and vote against him.
If he loses a second GOP vote, Johnson may not have the votes needed to secure a majority, which would send the election to a second ballot. It could continue until either Johnson or some other candidate wins.
Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has said Democrats will not support Johnson, but it’s possible one or more maverick Democrats might cross party lines.
Johnson’s ace in the hole could be Trump’s support, especially because the House needs to elect a speaker by Monday, Jan. 6 to carry out the certification of the presidential election. Trump is sure to want that process to go off without a hitch, particularly after the violent attack on the Capitol by his supporters four years ago.
Johnson, 52, grabbed the speakership in a surprise in October 2023 after Republicans struggled to replace Kevin McCarthy following his unprecedented removal. Several contenders tried and failed before Republicans settled on Johnson, who is well liked across the conference and has a good working relationship with Jeffries.
But Johnson’s handling of major funding fights, including passage of aid to Ukraine last spring and, most recently, a short-term spending bill, has turned at least a few allies into critics.
He repeatedly has had to turn to Jeffries to provide Democratic support to pass crucial spending bills, including a last-minute stopgap spending bill to avert a holiday shutdown before Christmas.
The House cannot organize until it has a speaker because that person effectively serves as the House’s presiding officer and the institution’s administrative head. The House can elect a new speaker at any time if the person occupying that role dies, resigns or is removed from office.
A speaker is normally elected at the start of a new Congress and serves in the job for the full two-year session.
Republicans chose Johnson as their nominee for speaker in a closed-door vote in November. A week later, Democrats unanimously chose the popular Jeffries, a Brooklyn lawmaker, to remain their leader for a second stint.
The Brooklyn lawmaker would be in line to become the first Black speaker if Democrats retake control of the House.
To become speaker, a candidate needs a majority of the votes from House members who are present and voting.
Historically, the magical number has been 218 out of the 435 members of the House.
But previous speakers, including McCarthy, have won with fewer votes because members sometimes vote “present” instead of calling out a name. Every lawmaker voting “present” lowers the overall tally needed to reach a majority.
