WASHINGTON — Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) faces an uphill battle for a fourth term in Congress following the emergence of details about an alleged affair with a congressional aide who fatally set herself on fire last year.
A Political Intelligence survey conducted in the days after The Post and other outlets detailed Gonzales’ extramarital tryst with the late Regina Santos-Aviles found him receiving just 21% support from likely voters in the March 3 Republican primary in the Lone Star State’s 23rd Congresional District.
YouTuber and firearms enthusiast Brandon Herrera, whose campaign commissioned the poll, was way out in front with 45% support, making him the heavy favorite in a potential May 26 runoff.
More than one in four (26%) of likely voters said they were undecided, while former Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco and construction executive Keith Barton each received 4% support.
In addition, 54% of likely primary voters said they had an “unfavorable” view of Gonzales, while just 24% had a “favorable” opinion of the three-term congressman and 22% had “no opinion.”
By contrast, Herrera was viewed favorably by 52% of likely primary voters, compared to 20% who viewed him unfavorably and 29% who had no opinion.
Gonzales lashed out at both Herrera and Adrian Aviles — Santos-Aviles’ widower — last week, claiming he was being “blackmailed” following the revelation of a text exchange in which the aide admitted the affair to one of her colleagues.
Santos-Aviles, 35, lit herself on fire in the backyard of her Uvalde, Texas, home on Sept. 13, 2025, dying the following day in the hospital of her injuries.
In May 2024, 16 months earlier, Adrian Aviles discovered sexually suggestive text messages from the congressman on his wife’s phone.
On Monday, Aviles released those communications — including one message in which Gonzales asks the married mother of one for a “sexy pic” and queries about her favorite sexual position.
According to the latest poll, 61% of 23rd District Republicans said knowledge of the affair would make them “somewhat less likely” or “much less likely” to vote for Gonzales, while just 32% said it would make no difference to their vote.
“During my six years in Congress not a single formal complaint has been levied against my office. Now days away from an election, coordinated political attacks reign [sic] in. IT WONT WORK,” Gonzales posted on X Sunday.
“Half way through early voting and the intensity resides w/ TG voters. I’d rather be us than them.”
Aviles and his attorney, Bobby Barrera, had been seeking a settlement of up to $300,000 with Gonzales’ office under the Congressional Accountability Act for alleged sex harassment and workplace retaliation.
“He lives his life as if nothing happened. He has no remorse. His office never reached out to us and given us any kind of condolences,” Aviles told The Post of Gonzales last week.
“Regina was not pregnant,” he noted. “She was a completely stable … mentally sane person before all of this.”
Gonzales had previously denied the affair allegations after they were first reported by the Daily Mail this past October.
Last week, the lawmaker accused Aviles and Barrera of trying to “blackmail” him.
Aviles has publicly asked President Trump to withdraw his endorsement of Gonzales in the primary — despite previously telling The Post this was not a “political” issue for him.
“I was trying to remain silent. I did not want this out there. … I wanted all this to just be behind us,” Aviles said. “He will not be allowed to lie about my wife again. … He’s already done it twice, and I remained silent because I have an 8-year-old son.”
The Political Intelligence poll surveyed 543 likely GOP primary election voters in Texas’ 23rd District from Feb. 18 to 20.
The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
