Upstate New York Rep. Elise Stefanik would be the clear front-runner in a Republican primary for governor next year and be the strongest candidate to take on Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in a general election should she run, a new poll released Monday claims.
Stefanik — who has been rumored to be eyeing a gubernatorial run — got support of 44% of New York Republicans compared to 7% for lower Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler and 5% for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, according to the poll of likely voters.
Another 44% of respondents said they were undecided, the survey conducted by Republican pollster Landon Wall with GrayHouse found.
Stefanik is better known and liked among Republican voters, with 56% having a favorable view of her and 9% unfavorable, or plus 47 percentage points.
Meanwhile, 33% of Republicans had a favorable view of Lawler and just 3% had an unfavorable view, while nearly two-thirds didn’t know who he was or were undecided in their opinion of the congressman.
Even fewer Republicans statewide know Blakeman, who is running for re-election for Nassau executive this fall.
Stefanik, 40, was first elected in 2014 to the seat representing the sprawling 21st House District that stretches to the Canadian border.
President Trump announced Stefanik — who’s a member of the House GOP leadership — as his choice to become US Ambassador to the United Nations. He later pulled back the nomination, expressing concern about Republicans losing her seat and threatening the GOP’s razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives.
But she’s still a Trump favorite. The president recently posted on Truth Social that “Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is GREAT!!!”
“Should Congresswoman Elise Stefanik choose to enter the race for governor, she would begin the Republican primary in a dominant position and offer the GOP its strongest opportunity to defeat Governor Kathy Hochul in the 2026 general election,” Wall, the pollster, said.
The poll of 400 registered York State Republicans via live mobile phone interviews and text-to-web interviews has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
A larger survey of 600 registered voters shows that incumbent Gov. Hochul is potentially vulnerable to a strong GOP candidate.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Hochul leads Stefanik 46% to 40%.
Hochul also leads Lawler by just 45% to 38% and Blakeman 44% to 36% — seven- and eight-point margins respectively.
In 2022, Hochul defeated GOP nominee Lee Zeldin, now the US Environmental Protection administrator, by 6 percentage points — 53% to 47%.
Meanwhile, 61% of general election voters said they prefer to vote for “someone new” instead of Hochul.
“Across all tested matchups, Hochul fails to reach 47% support—a warning sign for an incumbent in a blue state,” Wall said.
The poll claims Hochul’s net job approval rating is deeply underwater, with 36% of voters approving and 55% of respondents disapproving.
The poll of 600 voters for the general election has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Landon Wall has previously polled for Republican candidates in Arizona, including campaigns for Kari Lake for governor and US Senate. He recently moved his operations to Washington, D.C. He said his firm financed the survey.
