The NFL playoffs are poised to look pretty weird.
Patrick Mahomes will not appear in the postseason next month.
Nor will Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott.
Lamar Jackson is dangerously close to joining them, and he may not be healthy enough to play next weekend as his Baltimore Ravens (7-8) attempt to keep their dwindling playoff hopes alive.
The odds are even worse for the Detroit Lions, who fell to 8-7 on Sunday, less than a year after they finished 15-2 and entered last postseason as the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
“All we can do is control what we can control,” Jackson said after Sunday night’s 28-24 loss to the New England Patriots, a game in which he left during the second quarter due to a back injury and did not return.
This is the first time in Mahomes’ career that the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t make the playoffs.
They advanced to at least the AFC Championship Game in each of Mahomes’ first seven seasons as a starter from 2018-24; made it to the Super Bowl five of those years; and won it three times.
After going 15-2 and losing in the Super Bowl last season, the Chiefs are just 6-9 this year.
They were eliminated from playoff contention during their Week 15 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers — a game in which Mahomes tore multiple ligaments in his left knee.
Mahomes already underwent knee surgery in hopes of returning for Week 1 of the 2026 season. But after this year’s disappointment, the once-dynastic Chiefs could look much different next season, not least of which because Travis Kelce, 36, has publicly contemplated retirement.
The future is similarly uncertain for the Bengals (5-10), who have now missed the playoffs in all three seasons since their Super Bowl loss in February 2023.
Burrow has suffered three serious injuries in six NFL seasons, including the turf toe that required surgery and cost him nine games this year. Cincinnati is 4-2 with Burrow this season, compared to 1-8 without him.
The Bengals’ inability to protect Burrow or to field a competent defense remain the sources of scrutiny, and Burrow’s recent cryptic comments have raised questions about his long-term future in Cincinnati.
Burrow said last week that he is “going to be playing for a long time” and expects to be in Cincy next season. But when he was asked if has ever considered the possibility of playing for another team at some point, Burrow replied, “You think about a lot of things.”
The absences of Mahomes and Burrow opens up the AFC, but Jackson and the Ravens have not been able to take advantage.
Jackson missed three games with a hamstring injury earlier in the season, and he’s also dealt with knee, ankle and toe ailments that didn’t cost him any time.
If the Ravens lose to the Green Bay Packers on Saturday, or if the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers beat the lowly Cleveland Browns on Sunday, then Baltimore will be eliminated from the playoffs.
The Ravens made the playoffs in six of Jackson’s first seven seasons from 2018-24, including each of the past three.
But NFL.com’s playoff predictor gives the Ravens just an 11% chance of making the playoffs, compared to 89% odds for the 9-6 Steelers, who are led by 42-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
The Lions’ odds fell to 8% after Sunday’s 29-24 loss to Pittsburgh. Unless they defy the odds, this will be the Lions’ first time missing the playoffs in three years.
The Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) were eliminated from playoff contention over the weekend, despite a healthy season from Prescott and a pair of 1,000-yard wide receivers in George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb.
That officially extended the Cowboys’ Super Bowl drought to 30 years. After three consecutive 12-win seasons for Dallas from 2021-23, the Cowboys have missed the postseason two years in a row.
“We all underachieved, really,” Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said. “And the fact we’re not in the playoffs says that for you.”
And then there are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who fell to 7-8 and into second place in the NFC South with Sunday’s 23-20 loss to the division-leading Carolina Panthers (8-7).
Tampa Bay has made the playoffs five years in a row and won the NFC South in each of the last four.
NFL.com’s projection model still gives the Bucs a 58% chance of making the playoffs, compared to 42% for the Panthers.
That’s because the Buccaneers visit the spiraling Miami Dolphins (6-9) next weekend, while the Panthers are set to host a Seattle Seahawks team (12-3) that is fighting to lock down the NFC’s top seed.
The Bucs and Panthers then face each other in Tampa Bay in Week 18 — a matchup that could decide the NFC South.
The absences of the Chiefs, Bengals and Cowboys in the playoff mix – and the strong possibility the Ravens and Lions will soon join them — opened the door for the Patriots, Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Pats (12-3), Bears (11-4) and Jags (11-4) are competing for the top seed in their respective conferences after none won more than five games last season.
But nobody may benefit from this playoff shakeup more than the Buffalo Bills (11-4), who have their clearest path to the Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era.
The Bills are well on their way to their seventh consecutive playoff appearance, but they are yet to win the AFC under Allen. That’s largely because Allen is 0-4 against Mahomes in the playoffs.
This year, Allen and the Bills won’t have Mahomes standing in the way.
