BILLS at TEXANS
8:15 p.m., Bills by 5 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: As good as the Texans’ defense is, their offense doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the Bills and we think that’s the determining factor. Yes, if you are inclined to bet on the home team here, there are arguments to be made. Josh Allen will not move the ball with ease as he did in the second half against Tampa Bay, not without TE Dalton Kincaid in the lineup. The Texans beat up Allen, who was 9-30-131 in a 23-20 win last season and their defense has been playing at an even higher level this year. Plus, the Texans can succeed on the ground against Buffalo’s 29th-ranked run defense with Matt Milano really struggling this season. The Bills should get Shaq Thompson back after a weeks-long absence so that will help. On the other hand, the gap between Allen and Houston backup Davis Mills is chasmal (Matthew Stafford is the only QB the Texans have faced who compares) and the Bills are too good of a team not to learn from last year’s defeat. Mills, a game manager at best, loves throwing to TE Dalton Schultz and the best thing the Bills DE does is defend tight ends. Thanksgiving is nearly upon us and it’s go time, when the best teams show up. We feel they do here, even if there is value on the Texans.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under.
