COMMANDERS at EAGLES
3 p.m., Eagles by 5 ½, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: Kudos to Jayden Daniels. He’s had as good a rookie season as any quarterback, ever. But this game isn’t going to be decided by the QBs. It’s going to come down to the big boys up front and the guys lugging the football. No one has done that better this year than Saquon Barkley and only two teams in the entire league defended the run worse than the Commanders, at 137 yards per game. Barkley, of course, was a big part of that, rushing for 296 yards, four TDs and a 6.57-ypc clip in the two meetings between the teams this year.
We will not know the status of Jalen Hurts until he takes the field, although, either way, his mobility, a key facet in the Eagle offense, will be limited. But if Washington can’t stop Barkley, it will not matter.
Obviously, if Daniels continues his phenomenal, mistake-free play, the Commanders can easily win this game. But he will be up against the best defense he’s faced in the postseason. The Bucs weren’t very good and the Lions were worse, which was why Washington has punted only once in two games. Odds are, the Eagles are going to get their stops. We don’t see the Commanders converting on third and fourth downs at their most recent crazy rate. The status of Philly’s rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell bears watching but if he can play, he will. At the same time, losing RG Sam Cosmi is a huge blow to Washington. That is where Jalen Carter does his damage. Daniels has been sacked only once in the playoffs.
The Lions overlooked the Commanders somewhat last week. They were more cocky than confident. The Eagles know what their divisional rivals can do and they know exactly how to beat them. As for the total, if you like the Eagles, it’s the under. If you like the Commanders, it’s the over. Just keep in mind that the conditions will not be as perfect as they were in Tampa or Detroit.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.
BILLS at CHIEFS
6:30 p.m., Chiefs by 1 ½, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: It just feels as though the Chiefs’ luck may finally run out in this one, and yes, that includes those favorable calls. If you’re into conspiracy theories (and we’re not), referee Clete Blakeman and his crew have drawn the assignment and he has a history of throwing flags against the Chiefs.
Betting against Patrick Mahomes in the postseason has been a losing proposition, including his matchups with Buffalo. But this is a different Josh Allen as he comes off a victory over another MVP candidate in Lamar Jackson. K.C. defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s approach almost never varies. It’s a heavy blitz package in front of man coverage and Allen happens to be one of the best QBs against both concepts. No longer the mistake-prone gunslinger, Allen has been more risk-averse this season while looking more to underneath routes over the home run ball. You beat the Chiefs’ secondary with patience and Allen has displayed that trait this season. That has contributed to an NFL-best plus-27 turnover rate for a net gain of 111 points. What’s more, the Bills, with an 87% TD rate, were far better in the red zone this past season. Both of those trends showed up in the win over the Ravens last week. It’s true that the Chiefs don’t beat themselves but the Bills are even better at it.
With what’s expected of the two game plans, this shapes up as a low-scoring game. The Chiefs have been winning with defense and coming in under the number all year. Andy Reid does not want to get into a shootout. At the same time, while the Bills are more explosive, they have gone to more of a run-heavy game plan. Expect a chess match.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under.
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BEST BET: Eagles. More grief for Giants fans.
LAST WEEK: 1-2-1, 2-2 over/under
POSTSEASON: 4-5-1, 6-4 over/under
BEST BETS: 2-0
