There is one upside to this awfully iffy season on Broadway.
And it’s that we get an especially cutthroat Tony Awards on Sunday night.
Whereas last year “Maybe Happy Ending” and “Sunset Boulevard” were shoo-ins for their prizes, our current lack of obvious commercial hits or widespread consensus on shows’ artistic merit means there are a lot of hard-to-call races.
This ain’t the Oscars. There is a tiny pool of about 850 Tony voters, some of whom wind up not voting at all. So, in years like 2026, a handful of people can make a huge difference. There could be upsets galore!
Here’s who I think will have a good night at Radio City Music Hall. But even the favorites shouldn’t get too comfortable.
Best Musical: “Schmigadoon”
Hitting up show parties the past few weeks, I asked many people who they’re voting for and who’s winning. Most of the time I heard “Schmigadoon,” the parody of Golden Age musicals based on the canceled Apple TV+ show. Of course, they usually said so with the shrugging tone of, “Let’s just have pasta.”
I get it. During one of the roughest seasons for new musicals in recent memory, “Schmigadoon” offers a comfort-food familiarity because, of course, it’s mocking old shows. It looks like your typical Broadway musical. An $8 jar of Rao’s marinara.
“Lost Boys” fans are more effusive, lauding its spirit of fun and ambition. A lot of people have voted for “Lost Boys.”
Could the high-flying vampire spectacle put a stake in the corny heart of “Schmigadoon”? Not impossible. I’d sure like it to. But all signs point to that piece of “Schmig.”
Best Play: “Liberation”
It’s exceedingly rare for a closed new play to win the Tony. Outside of the unusual COVID-era ceremonies, you have to go back to Tom Stoppard’s “The Coast of Utopia” in 2007 to find one.
“Liberation,” Bess Wohl’s dramedy about a 1970s Women’s Lib group, which played its last performance in February, will buck the trend. Everybody knows it’s better written than its closest competitor, the indictment of Roald Dahl’s antisemitism, “Giant,” and a recent Pulitzer Prize win has thrust “Liberation” back into the minds of voters.
Best Revival of a Musical: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Many on Broadway love the Lincoln Center production of “Ragtime.” However, just as many love to complain about it. The staging bears the brunt of the gripes, given the Vivian Beaumont’s long resume of stunners.
The stellar revival of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s “Cats,” retitled “Cats: The Jellicle Ball,” has devotees and haters too. Young voters prefer it more than older voters. But most agree it’s at least doing something exciting by putting a new spin on a 1980s show that nobody thought was possible — making the cats people in the world of Harlem ballroom. Some would argue this version even improves upon “Cats.”
Boundary-pushing revivals that expand what a show can be (“Sunset Boulevard,” “Oklahoma,” “Company”) tend to win. Standard issue ones tend to lose.
Best Revival of a Play: “Death of a Salesman”
“Liberation”’s victory, I suspect, gives “Death of a Salesman” a leg up over the London transfer of “Oedipus,” which wrapped up its limited run in the winter. Two closed plays claiming victory is bad optics. The Tonys are one big commercial for Broadway. Viewers should be able to actually buy tickets to some of the winners.
The excellence of director Joe Mantello’s “Salesman” has already translated into robust sales. An Arthur Miller drama at the Winter Garden is routinely outgrossing all of the new musicals and revivals of the season, while having respected stage vets Nathan Lane and Laurie Metcalf in the leads. Not, you know, George Clooney and Jessica Chastain.
That feat should and likely will be celebrated.
Best Actor and Actress in a Musical: Joshua Henry and Caissie Levy, “Ragtime”
Easy peasy. Joshua Henry, who plays Coalhouse Walker in “Ragtime,” is the surest bet of the night for Best Actor. Yes, Luke Evans is a treat in “The Rocky Horror Show,” but that revival’s gonna blank. And while Nicholas Christopher is a revelation in “Chess,” he’s going to be up for a lot of awards in his promising future. It’s Henry by a mile.
And for Best Actress, it’s his co-star Caissie Levy, as Mother, by three quarters of a mile. Marla Mindelle, who plays Celine Dion in “Titanique,” got some votes. But Levy’s role is simply far meatier. Ballads, tears, Tony.
Best Actor and Actress in a Play: John Lithgow and Lesley Manville
John Lithgow, who plays children’s author Dahl, edges out Nathan Lane as Willy Loman by a hair, I think, in Best Actor in a Play. His terrific performance carries the show and he’s the main reason audiences are going to see it.
Can you believe “Oedipus” marked Lesley Manville’s Broadway debut? She was ferocious as that mommie dearest, Jocasta, and probably goes home with her very first Tony.
Featured Actor and Actress in a Musical: Ali Louis Bourzgui (“The Lost Boys”) and Shoshana Bean (“The Lost Boys”)
An important bit of history: No musical has won all four acting slots since the original production of “South Pacific” in 1950 — 76 years ago. That’s the one and only time that has ever happened.
I don’t see that impressive record being broken by the revival of “Ragtime.” If that wins a third award, it’s Ben Levi Ross for Featured Actor. However, I’ve heard a lot of gushing praise for Ali Louis Bourzgui as David the vampire in “Lost Boys.” Or maybe Andre de Shields of “Jellicle Ball” catwalks in. Tough category.
Shoshana Bean, meanwhile, is up against Nichelle Lewis (“Ragtime”) and Ana Gasteyer (“Schmigadoon”). It’s been said so many times that this would act as a career award for Bean that it looks likely to come true.
Featured Actor and Actress in a Play: Alden Ehrenreich (“Becky Shaw”) and Laurie Metcalf (“Death of a Salesman”)
In his vicious Broadway debut in “Becky Shaw,” Ehrenreich has been one of the season’s biggest surprises. He has strong competition in Christopher Abbott (Biff in “Salesman”) and Ruben Santiago-Hudson (Bynum in “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”). They both could pull it off. But all the talk lately has been of Alden.
And Laurie Metcalf. Need I say more?
