WASHINGTON — Swing-district Republican incumbents hauled in nearly $100,000 more than their vulnerable Democratic peers during the third quarter, as the GOP’s midterm prospects have begun to look surprisingly brighter despite historical headwinds.
The GOP’s self-identified top at-risk House members collectively raised $763,000 last quarter, outpacing the Dems’ self-identified most vulnerable incumbents’ $664,000 haul, campaign finance records show.
Additionally, the slate of sitting House Republicans in competitive districts collectively stockpiled a war chest of about $2.4 million in cash on hand, compared to $1.6 million war chests for their similarly situated Democratic peers.
“It’s crystal clear: The unprecedented momentum is all on the side of House Republicans,” National Republican Congressional Committee Mike Marinella told The Post.
“While House Republicans are building war chests and delivering results, vulnerable Democrats are burning cash and fending off their radical base.”
Vulnerable incumbent candidates in this analysis were identified by their respective party’s official campaign arms.
The official House GOP campaign arm has named 17 so-called “NRCC Patriots,” whom the party apparatus views as its most vulnerable incumbents.
On the other side of the aisle, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is working to protect its 26 “frontliners.”
This is the third quarter in a row that the NRCC Patriots’ total haul has eclipsed the DCCC’s frontliners.
Still, the DCCC is taking solace in the fact that some of the Democratic challengers to GOP incumbents — such as Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) and Scott Perry (R-Pa.) — have outraised them.
“Americans are tired of the disastrous GOP agenda of higher costs, broken promises, and tax breaks for billionaires,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told The Post.
“They’re ready for change, and it’s why Democratic candidates are seeing a surge of support and will take back the House in 2026.”
Historically, the party in control of the White House takes a beating in the midterm election cycles. Given the House GOP’s threadbare 219-to-213 majority in the lower chamber, Republicans are generally seen as the underdogs.
Recently, Democrats’ lead in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling on a general 2026 congressional ballot vote has slipped to 1.6 percentage points, down from 2.5 points at the end of August.
On top of that, Republicans are eyeing gerrymandering gains and are hopeful that a forthcoming Supreme Court decision will upend the redistricting process in their favor.
“Democrats’ chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted, while GOP chances have skyrocketed over the last 6 months,” CNN’s data guru Henry Enten observed this week.
“Dems aren’t keeping up with the pace they set in 2017 on the generic ballot,” he added. “[The] GOP may be looking at big gains from mid-decade redistricting.”
Meanwhile, Democrats’ hopes of reclaiming the Senate have seemingly been boosted slightly over recent months as the party has worked to recruit quality candidates in competitive states like Maine, North Carolina and Michigan.
Republicans have to defend 22 seats compared to the Democrats’ 13. But Democrats had generally been seen as having only a few pickup opportunities.
